The new A-League model continues to find value play after value play in the juicy A-League markets and we hope the first week of the split round is no exception with a massive 11% edge on offer here... 

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our A-League match predictions plus access to more soccer content.

This week's free play is...

Melbourne Victory v Newcastle Jets

When: Sat 2 March, 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

After its most exciting summer of cricket ever, Geelong welcomes the Melbourne Victory FC to GMHBA Stadium for their annual game, this time against 2017/18 A-League runners-up Newcastle Jets. Geelong has typically been the scene of some high-scoring thrillers, though we’re keen on the price available for this contest to buck the trend. 

Remarkably, no team has kept a clean sheet in four competitive A-League matches in Geelong, with a total of 17 goals being scored (4.25 per game). The Central Coast Mariners kept the Victory to a 1-1 draw the last time the A-League visited Geelong.

Despite the odd blip (v Perth, v Wellington), Melbourne have defended fairly soundly at home - wherever they have played - conceding 15 goals in 11 matches. Veteran defender Georg Niedermeier misses this one through suspension, though, given the team are conceding every 66 minutes with him, and every 72 minutes overall - and have managed just one of their four clean sheets with him in the starting lineup - that might not be the worst thing. 

45% of Newcastle games this season have gone over 2.5 (compared with the league average of 55%), including just one of their last three - a 5-1 thumping of the Western Sydney Wanderers. They have had a week off to refresh after four games in 12 days, and should be in a good place to reset and solidify their defence. The Jets will need to be particularly switched on after half-time, with the Victory scoring more second-half goals (26) than any other club in the league. 

The model has this one going the way of the unders, with nearly 53% of total simulations producing under 2.5 goals. That makes for a huge 11% edge over bookmakers prices!

For goalscorer markets players, it’s worth noting that Terry Antonis has found the back of the net in both matches against Newcastle this season.

To discover all value available for Week 21 of the A-League, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here. 

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!