The split round got off to a fantastic start, with a massive 11% edge saluting in Geelong last weekend. Let's make it 2/2 with an edge that (at time of publication) is even bigger!

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

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This week's free play is...

Brisbane Roar v Western Sydney Wanderers

When: Fri 8 March, 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

$2.60 for a flip of the coin! It’s model vs stats this week as we find a mammoth 15% edge in favour of this Friday night clash being a low scoring one. Both sides are almost certainly out of A-League Finals contention, but are on the improve: Brisbane are 2-1-0 under interim manager Darren Davies, as are the Wanderers, who capped off their first consecutive wins of the season with an impressive draw against league leaders Perth.

Traditionally a head-to-head fixture of few goals, the last three Roar-Wanderers clashes (going back to 2017/18) have all seen over 2.5 goals scored, including two 2-2 draws this season.

It’s the battle of the A-League’s two worst first-half teams: the Roar and Wanderers suffer from first-half goal differences of -8 and -7 respectively. 

The further one delves into Brisbane’s home record this season, the worse it looks: the Roar have also conceded 15 second-half goals at home (nearly twice as many as the next worst), they have opened the scoring only twice at home, and have scored just twice inside the first 15 minutes of either half for 15 going the other way (home or away).

The Wanderers, conversely, have opened the scoring on five of nine occasions away from home. 

As far as the 10,000 Stats Insider simulations are concerned, this is a 50-50 market, with the total goals being split exactly down the middle. Our A-League readers would know by now to #TrustTheModel, as it has produced some insane projections throughout the season. If you can’t, just know there is absolutely no worth in backing the over 2.5 on this occasion. 

Punters following the model will also need to trust Vedran Janjetovic, who “leads” the league for errors directly leading to opposition goals (four).

To discover all value available for Week 21 of the A-League, try a free Stats Insider Premium subscription here. 

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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