A-League Preview: Week 7

An exciting Round 7 of the A-League, which peaks with the "original rivalry" between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United tomorrow, kicks off with our free match of the round tonight at Spotless Stadium. 

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Western Sydney v Central Coast Mariners

When: Friday 7 Dec 7:50pm EDT

The Market: Under 2.5 Goals 

Often a low-scoring matchup, the model currently projects a massive +9% edge in favour of this one adding to the trend and falling under 2.5 total goals.

Last time at home, the Wanderers struggled as favourites against the Jets, falling to a 0-2 defeat on a disgraceful Spotless Stadium surface. They have since failed to score on consecutive occasions, and with new manager Markus Babbel looking a bit short on ideas, the team look lacklustre and unmotivated across all thirds - something Babbel blames on a lack of relegation. 

Oriol Riera continues to be the busiest striker in the league, having racked up 31 shots this season, but for only 12 shots on target and three goals - that’s horribly inefficient.

Central Coast, for all their impressive attacking signings, sit alongside the Wanderers with just six goals scored this season. Their last four games have all seen over 2.5 goals scored but they could provide WSW with a good opportunity to plug their defensive leaks - and vice versa.

Five of the last 13 meetings between these sides (including two of the last six hosted by WSW) have seen over 2.5 total goals scored - quite low-scoring particularly by the A-League’s standards. 

While the average market price suggests a 42% probability of the under 2.5 play saluting, the advanced Stats Insider predictive model has 51% of its 10,000 simulations producing results with two or fewer goals scored - a significant edge on the bookies. 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?

READ: What is the Edge?

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