A-League Preview: Week 8
Last updated: Dec 18, 2018, 2:36AM | Published: Dec 12, 2018, 10:20PM.jpg?w=750)
The Wanderers and Mariners got the job done for us last week, with a significant +9% edge in favour of the under 2.5 total saluting. This week our free match comes from across the ditch as we lead into another fascinating Sydney derby, where the Sky Blues look vulnerable for the first time in years. New week, same value play!
In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.
For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.
Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners
When: Sat 15 Dec 5:35pm EDT
The Market: Under 2.5 goals
Can the Mariners sink any lower? Mike Mulvey certainly hopes not, with his club in danger of sinking to a club record 14th consecutive game without a win. Defeat here would condemn CCM to the worst eight-round start of any club in A-League history.
They take on a sky-high Phoenix side who return home off the back of a huge win over reigning premiers Sydney at Kogarah last week, where they dominated from start to finish.
Where do the goals come for the Mariners? It’s hard to know: Ross McCormack has returned to England for treatment on his knee, while another high-profile signing Tommy Oar remains injured. Perhaps they needed Usain after all!
The Phoenix are yet to score more than one goal in a home game since round one (where they picked up two through an own goal and a soft penalty), and while this looks their best opportunity since, the Stats Insider model finds significant value in favour of the unders once again. Whereas the market heavily favours the overs (about 57%), 53% of our 10,000 simulations on this contest are producing totals under 2.5 goals. That makes for a 10% edge - an orange smiley on our A-League scale.
Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.
How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?
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