A-League Preview: Week 9

Two out of two for our free A-League plays since introducing the brand new preview format! Our free match of the round this week comes from down south as Melbourne City look to continue some good on-field results despite plenty of drama off the pitch. 

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our soccer predictions plus more regular content.

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory

When: Sat Dec 22, 7:50pm EDT

The Play: Melbourne City to win OR double chance

Perhaps the most captivating of a very exciting round of A-League fixtures, Melbourne City will be desperate to put some controversy behind them as they host the Victory in the second derby of the season. 

With Warren Joyce under increasing scrutiny over the likely departures of Fornaroli and Caceres, and the club’s active support group disbanding in protest at the end of the match, City must continue to collect points. They shocked in week one with a 2-1 win over the Victory, though this is an entirely different Melbourne Victory to the one that lost their first two matches. 

The Victory have now won six straight, with the front four of Troisi-Toivonen-Barbarouses and Honda as the anchorman looking like one of the deadliest attacks in A-League history. They have scored 20 in eight matches, now threatening Sydney FC’s goalscoring record of 66. 

As expected, the bookies are keeping them very safe. The SI model has Melbourne City as the narrowest of favourites in this one, with the hosts winning 38% of 10,000 simulations (whereas the average market price suggests a 32% likelihood). 

The Victory have won three of the past four derbies at AAMI Park (D1) - but as we all know, no matter the country or even the sport, form gets thrown out the window in a derby! The value lies with City. 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.

Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!