Adelaide... It's time we had a chat

Most people can either tell you about the best holiday they’ve ever had - or at a minimum - provide you with a pretty good idea of what their perfect escape would include.

For many, holding onto a memory of happier times helps the individual through the drudgery of the mundane every day, or functions as an ideal to strive toward.

There is, however, a fine line between daydreaming one’s way through existence and ignoring the problems and tasks that are clear and present in one’s life.

For the Adelaide Crows, their best 'holiday' in recent times was their scorching 2017 season.

It’s also, unfortunately, the year they continue to fantasise about as they sleepwalk their way through another season.

The Crows' 2017 AFL season was the campaign when their outstanding offence took them all the way to the cusp of AFL Premiership glory.

In a sport that agonises over its aesthetic appeal - and seemingly redrafts its rules by the minute to promote higher scoring - the 2017 Crows worked as a heaven-sent juggernaut for the AFL.

Theirs was a team that electrified the league right out of the gate.

A team whose launch from halfback - achieved through the penetration and drive by the likes of Brodie Smith and Rory Laird - set up a dizzying array of goal scoring options with all of Eddie Betts, Tex Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch and Charlie Cameron kicking at least 29 goals that campaign.

2017 ADELAIDE CROWS STATISTICS

#1 Inside 50s: 57.5

#1 Marks Inside 50: 14.6

#1 Metres Gained: 5983.6

#1 Hit Outs: 45.4

#1 Contested Possessions: 154.7

#2 Clearances: 39.6

#2 Tackles: 71.9

It was an attack which won them the minor premiership and propelled them to a 65-point Preliminary Final beat down of Geelong, which was so convincing they started as the bookies and punters favourites on AFL Grand Final day.

Yet, for all the snapshots and hair-braiding memories of that unforgettable 2017, the Crows’ season did indeed end with a horrible jellyfish attack on the most coveted beach of all - the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Adelaide were smashed by Richmond on Grand Final day, with their historic attack producing just eight goals on footy’s biggest stage.

In one of Neil Young’s many brilliant tunes ‘Ambulance Blues,’ the song concludes with the lyrics: 

‘... and there ain’t nothing like a friend who can tell you, you’re just pissing in the wind.’

The Crows need that kind of friend - and that kind of reality check - right now.

Most of all, they need that friend to tell them that for as wonderful as the 2017 season was, it did end with that horrible conclusion, with their season finishing in the precise same manner as 17 others experience each year - without the ultimate prize.

That friend needs to sit Don Pyke and the Crows down and tell them that those attacking memories from 2017 are long gone and are unlikely to return.

The Sackometer: Is Don Pyke on the hot seat?

Adelaide’s points per game total has slipped from a lofty 109.7 in 2017 all the way down to 80.4 this season, while their squad simply hasn’t been able to mix it with the competition heavyweights.

In 2017, Adelaide was 9-4 against teams who figured in that season’s AFL Finals. Last season they went 4-7 against teams who wound up playing in September, while this campaign they’ve already lost two of their three encounters against teams currently occupying a Finals position.

Most concerning, however, is that of the top ten in the Crows' best and fairest in 2017, it could be argued that none have really advanced their game - which is backed up, statistically - with just three players (Sloane, Brad Crouch and Atkins) actually improving from a Fantasy Points perspective.

In 2017, the Crows had eight players make the initial 40-man All-Australian Squad. 

Rory Laird was the only Crow to make the squad in 2018.

If the Crows are open to the kind of friend who is indeed brave enough to tell them that they are just 'pissing in the wind,' it's also entirely possible they might hear something positive in the process.

Through sniffles, tears, and the steam fom a much-needed cuppa, they might accept that at 5-4 and with a percentage of 115%, the Crows are still in an excellent position to return to Finals football. Even if the Stats Insider futures model is only forecasting them at 3.4% chance of breaking their 21-year AFL Premiership drought.

Something else that brave friend could tell their delusional 'crowmigo' is that they are in possession of Carlton’s first selection in the 2019 AFL Draft, which is extremely likely to be either the first or second overall pick. Not many teams make the Finals and also have the luxury of picking up elite talent that high at the draft.

No Adelaide, all's not lost, but a more realistic commitment to reality is what’s needed most. 

Forget 2017, it's not coming back.

Five of the Crows' next six games will be against teams who will be playing Finals football in 2019, with a match against a moderately improved (in recent weeks) Melbourne, thrown in for good measure.

These next six games will absolutely determine whether the Crows have woken up to their new reality or are still marooned in their golden slumber.

Leave a comment below or join the conversation on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.

James Rosewarne

James is a writer. He likes fiction and music. He is a stingray attack survivor. He lives in Wollongong.

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