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AFL 2020: 5 Potential Breakout Stars

Getting a Top-100 gig in Stats Insider’s initial Player Ratings rollout was no small feat.

Membership in this group means being in the top 16% of players, within the sport’s biggest league.

It’s a big deal.

Yet there’s tremendous talent lurking just beneath the surface of genuine AFL excellence. 

Today, we’ve identified 5 such players on the verge of something big, possessing the ability to soon enough smash themselves into the game’s ‘elite’ category.

BRADLEY HILL- ST KILDA

CURRENT SI RANK - 131

The Saints moved heaven and earth to ensure Bradley Hill’s return to Victoria would be Moorabbin-based.

At his best, Hill offers everything St Kilda have missed so terribly in recent years- principally, speed and penetration. 

He’s one of just 16 active players in the league averaging at least 15.7 uncontested possessions. It’s however his ability to cut teams up on the outside and drive his team forward which makes him such a precious commodity.

Hill’s two seasons with Fremantle were a raging success, adding a higher level of consistency and tenacity to his game. 

He averaged 1.9 clearances per match in 2019, well up on his 1.1 career average

At 27, Hill is rounding into a complete player and has the potential to be a fully-fledged star for the Saints. 

RELATED: Stats That Matter: The Tactical Evolution of AFL

JACOB HOPPER- GWS GIANTS

CURRENT SI RANK- 140

Tim Taranto will miss most of the year, Josh Kelly will be out of contract at the end of next, while we’re also likely in the final hours of Callan Ward’s excellent career. 

What does this mean for Jacob Hopper? Well, it represents a massive opportunity for the emerging star to become the leader of the Giant’s already exceptional midfield. 

2019 marked Hopper’s breakout season, placing 3rd in the GWS Best and Fairest in a team good enough to make a Grand Final. 

Where Hopper separated himself however was in terms of his midfield industry, made even more impressive by the sheer volume of his production at just 22 years of age. 

For a club who ranked 2nd in the league in both contested possession (8.5) and clearance differential (+3.6) in 2019, it was Hopper who was at the epicentre of so much GWS drive. 

He led the team with 6.2 clearances per game, however it was his work collecting contested possessions which was most jaw-dropping. He averaged 13.9 per match last season, which was not only easily his club’s best, but it was the 8th highest return in the entire AFL. 

RELATED: Can GWS Recover From Their Giant Grand Final Nightmare?

CALLUM MILLS- SYDNEY

CURRENT SI RANK- 147

The moment Callum Mills entered the AFL as the #3 overall pick in 2015 it’s seemed as though he’s belonged.

He immediately established himself as a versatile, high possession winner for the Swans, cruising to the 2016 Rising Star Awardand establishing himself as one of Sydney’s first picked each week.

The only problem however is Mills simply hasn’t made significant progression from his rookie season. In fact, Mills averaged more touches as a rookie than he did last season, with Swans fans entitled to feel they’ve been short changed by a player their club handed the very famous number 14 guernsey to. 

While Mills did get a pre-season State of Origin call up, 2020 looms as a massive year and perhaps establish himself as a star rather than simply a very good player. 

After just 3 goals and 3 Brownlow votes through his first 78 career games, it’s time for Mills to step up, especially with Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker in the twilight of their own excellent careers.

RELATED: Did The Sydney Swans Botch Their Renovation?

HARRY MCKAY- CARLTON

CURRENT SI RANK- 238

Not much has gone right for the Blues over the last twenty years, yet for all their failures both on and off the field, they’ve occasionally struck gold at the draft.

Marc Murphy has obviously put together an excellent career, while more recently, Patrick Cripps has emerged as one of our sports’s mega-stars.

Blues fans have their fingers and toes crossed that perhaps Harry McKay will be next. 

2019 marked the young forward’s rather spectacular breakout. While he won the Carlton goalkicking, it was his presence inside-50 and ability to hold his own in the contest which stood out most. 

Not only did McKay reel in 125 marks, but 45 were contested, which was a number bettered by only Tom Lynch (56) and Aaron Naughton (53).

If McKay can build upon last season’s progress, and if Carlton can somehow find more ways to support him, the Blues may well have another emerging super-star on their hands.

RELATED: AFL | Stats That Matter - Defence Wins Premierships

ESAVA RATUGOLEA - GEELONG

CURRENT SI RANK- 362

The reality is Geelong legend Tom Hawkins simply can’t keep up his production forever. 

The Cats need other key forwards to emerge, which makes Esava Ratugolea’s trajectory so heartwarming for Geelong fans. 

Ratugolea played 20 games last year on an overly excellent team good, good enough to win the Minor Premiership and boast a half-time lead in the Preliminary Final. 

Speaking of Finals, last September also heralded Ratugolea’s arrival, booting a career-high 3 goals in the Cats cut-throat Semi Final win over West Coast, while also pulling in 4 contested marks. 

The young, highly athletic Cat has gotten better by the week, emerging as a vital piece of Geelong’s forward structure. 

This season looms as an opportunity for Ratugolea to take it up another notch and perhaps emerge as a genuine star of the competition.  

RELATED: AFL | Stats That Matter - The Changing Face of the Forward

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James Rosewarne

James is a writer. He likes fiction and music. He is a stingray attack survivor. He lives in Wollongong.

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