AFL Brownlow Medal 2022 Predictions Revealed
Last updated: Sep 16, 2022, 3:29AM | Published: Aug 31, 2022, 12:01AM
With the 2022 AFL home-and-away season complete, it's time for footy fans to start looking forward to two things: the AFL finals and the 2022 Brownlow Medal count.
As we have done each year since 2019, Stats Insider has used powerful data and analytics to determine the most likely outcomes and the best betting value for this year's Brownlow Medal.
After correctly predicting the order of the top three in 2021, and suggesting bets on winners Lachie Neale in 2020 and Nat Fyfe in 2019, it certainly pays to see what our model is predicting.
MORE: AFL Finals Predictions
With Neale, Clayton Oliver, Touk Miller, Patrick Cripps, Andrew Brayshaw, and Christian Petracca all forecast to finish within five votes of each other in 2022, the race appears to be extremely close.
Stats Insider users can access our 2022 Brownlow predictions, as well as a thorough report that can be downloaded for free, thanks to BlueBet.
The report includes round-by-round data for every AFL game of the 2022 season, along with our model's top contenders, club votes, and probabilities for leading after Round 5 and Round 10.
Download the 2022 Brownlow Medal report now.
What is the Brownlow Medal?
The Brownlow Medal is a yearly award given out in the AFL, with the winner(s) being the player(s) who polls the most votes across the home-and-away season.
After each and every game of the season, the field umpires award votes to the three players they deem to be best on ground, in a 3-2-1 form.
The Brownlow Medal is regarded as the most prestigious individual award in Australian rules football.
Who is going to win the Brownlow Medal in 2022?
After simulating the count 10,000 times, the most likely winners of the 2022 Brownlow Medal are Lachie Neale of Brisbane and Clayton Oliver of Melbourne.
| Player name | Probability of Brownlow win | BlueBet odds |
| Lachie Neale (BRI) | 37.1% | $3.20 |
| Clayton Oliver (MEL) | 35.1% | $3.80 |
| Patrick Cripps (CAR) | 17.0% | $5.50 |
| Touk Miller (GCS) | 10.7% | $7.50 |
| Andrew Brayshaw (FRE) | 9.3% | $6.50 |
| Christian Petracca (MEL) | 7.3% | $7.50 |
When is the 2022 Brownlow Medal count?
The 2022 Brownlow Medal will be awarded on Monday 19 September, 2022. The count will be the final Brownlow of AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan's reign as the league's boss.
Who won the 2021 Brownlow Medal?
Port Adelaide's Ollie Wines took out the Brownlow Medal in 2021 with 36 votes, with Marcus Bontempelli and Clayton Oliver rounding out the top three.
Last 10 winners of the Brownlow Medal
- 2021: Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide)
- 2020: Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
- 2019: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle)
- 2018: Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn)
- 2017: Dustin Martin (Richmond)
- 2016: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)
- 2015: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle)
- 2014: Matt Priddis (West Coast)
- 2013: Gary Ablett Jr. (Gold Coast)
- 2012: Trent Cotchin (Richmond), Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn)
(Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
