What does it take for an AFL player to experience a true breakout season?

Whether it’s becoming a regular, strong contributor in a team’s best 22, establishing a name for themselves across the entire competition or even elevating themselves into a position that offers higher individual honours, we see a number of breakout players from each club year in, year out.

It’s also particular fun to monitor the trajectory of players. 

If fans notice early enough, they become invested in certain players, claiming them to be their own, almost living vicariously through the fortunes of their favourites.

A genuine breakout season can arrive in a variety of ways but most certainly the value added from the increased output of a player, while at times subjective in measurement, is the biggest standout factor.

Here are 4 players to write down and monitor throughout season 2022, with enough scope to claim as your own if you’re bold enough to make big calls about them.

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Andrew McGrath – Essendon

It’s hardly revolutionary to suggest that a former number one draft pick is a player to follow, but heading into his 6^th season, Andrew McGrath is set to surprise those outside of Essendon’s fandom.

Still just 23 years of age and seemingly the next captain of the football club, McGrath has been prolific to this point in his career, even if injuries have been particularly restrictive over the past couple of seasons.

But it’s the role change that has the potential to change the course of McGrath’s and Essendon’s futures that makes him well worth following in 2022. Touted to a return to the half-back role he was initially brought into the league to occupy, McGarth could be in a for a spectacular season if the early returns from the club’s first preseason practice match are anything to go by.

Since the start of 2020, the 23-year-old has averaged 22.3 disposals, 4.4 clearances and 4.6 tackles a game. As he became more of a midfield fixture, his disposal efficiency decreased from 81% in his first season, to around 70% in the last two.

There is no player in the Essendon team with the combination of calmness and creativity with ball in hand than McGrath and he proved early in his career that he can be an intercepting threat despite his height.

While the Bombers might be a year away from genuine contention, the thought here is that Andrew McGrath will be in the All-Australian squad as a half-back in 2022.

Punters- At TopSport, the Bombers are paying $6 to finish in the top4 for the first time in 21 years. 

Noah Anderson – Gold Coast

Okay, perhaps it’s cheating a little to go with another extremely high pick. Some may even expect Anderson to breakout, given it’s year 3 and talented youth should pick up their game at this time.

In his second season in the AFL system, the 21-year-old was underrated in his consistency and prolificity, averaging 22.6 disposals, 4.2 marks, 4 clearances and 3 tackles per game.

Where the scope for immediate growth is two-fold - his contested possession rate will increase again with him being at every stoppage, ultimately helping to pick up any slack left by Hugh Greenwood – it dropped from 43.3% in his debut season to 37.8% last year. He was a contested bull with Matt Rowell and that should be recaptured again this season.

The other part of the equation is the forward threat he will need to be without Ben King. Across two season with the Oakleigh Chargers, Anderson kicked 27 goals in 17 games while being a dominant midfielder. 37 games into his AFL career, Anderson has only managed a pedestrian 4.10.

Many expect the Suns to struggle this season but with the level of talent on the list, it’s hard to see a genuine bottoming-out with this in mind.

An Anderson breakout in 2022 may see him average 25 disposals, 12 contested possessions, 5.5 clearances and kick 15-20 goals, not out of the realm of possibility.

Punters- TopSport has set the under/over at 5.5 season wins where the Gold Coast Suns are concerned. 

Curtis Taylor – North Melbourne

People have finally caught onto the talented youth at North Melbourne and have changed their outlook on the club after an horrific start to 2021.

However, when many start to rattle off the names they most look forward to seeing in 2022 for the Kangaroos, rarely is Curtis Taylor’s name mentioned.

Make no mistake about it, Taylor is a best 22 player and is the sort of linking player that is vital for a fully-functioning, contending team to possess.

We saw some excellent moments from the 21-year-old last season with his consistency really taking a step forward – in his last 11 games of 2021, Taylor never dropped below 14 disposals, averaging 4.8 marks, 4.5 score involvements and 2.3 inside 50s per game. Add in the fact he had multiple intercepts in 5 of those matches and finished with 5 tackles on three occasions and the overall signs are brilliant.

Taylor is enormously talented and is an excellent move from North Melbourne’s hierarchy. With Tom T Lynch now at the club in an assistant coaching role, Taylor has the perfect mentor to help shape the former third-round pick into a vital player.

Matching the consistency from the backend of last season is the way forward for Taylor, who could very well put up a stat-line of 15 disposals, 5 marks, 3 inside 50s, 20 goals and 20 goal assists this season.

Punters- At TopSport, North Melbourne are paying $8 to morph from Wooden Spooners into 2022 finalists.

Chad Warner – Sydney

Warner is such a quintessentially Sydney player.

He was taken with the 39^th pick of the 2019 draft, which is about the mark for Sydney to find future stars. In 2020, he played just 2 games in his first season in the forward line before bursting onto the scene at the start of 2021.

Given the length of the general football season, as well as the global malaise that plays tricks on our minds, it’s easy to forget just how well Warner started in his second season before injury.

In his first 6 games, with the Swans midfield depleted, Warner averaged 19.7 disposals, 4.7 tackles, 3.2 clearances and an above average 377.7 metres gained per match. He kicked 5 goals and 5 behinds during that time while having a contested possession rate of 41.7%.

The 20-year-old was a part of the youthful Swans brigade that gave the club new life and set them on a finals path that he managed to return for, but having missed three months of football, couldn’t contribute greatly to.

Josh P Kennedy is due to play a more peripheral role in 2022 and Callum Mills’ fitness will restrict him early on in the season.

Warner was utterly dominant in the practice match against GWS and it is extremely Sydney-like for him to be the player that takes more ownership of a central role this season.

It’s easy to see him average 20 disposals, 5 tackles and 4 clearances a game in a top-four quality team in his first full season, placing well in the best-and-fairest.

Punters- At TopSport, the Swans are paying $3.1 to finish in the top4 for the first time since 2016. 

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