For everyone connected to the AFL, at whatever level, the lead-in to Round 1 is always a nail biting experience. After six months of preparation all eyes fixate on the first game of the season, even if our tiny data sample is ludicrously skewed, and even if we’re fully away that round 1 results aren’t necessarily indicative of future performance.

With that said, we’ve jumped in and ranked all 18 teams from 1 through to 18, assessing which clubs should be chilled and which should be borderline terrified in the wake of their season opener.

1- Melbourne

With the exception of a second-quarter lapse, the Demons smashed the Dogs in pretty much every department and did so without Jake Lever too. The second most metres gained of the round led to 17 marks inside 50, which, like last year, is a number that sits at the very top of the AFL. While the scoreboard showed a 26-point win, their expected score number was closer to the 47-point mark.

Punters- The Demons remain flag favourites and at TopSport you can get $4 about a back-to-back Melbourne premiership. 

2- Carlton

It’s been years since Carlton fans have been able to smile like this. Not only was that the Blues first win in either round 1 or 2 since 2012, but the manner in which they blew Richmond apart was incredibly encouraging. Their +24 inside 50 edge was easily the round’s largest, while Michael Voss’ defensive set-up was significantly more sophisticated than what Carlton fans have put up with in recent years. They kept Richmond to just 5,640 meters gained on the night, allowed just 188 uncontested disposals and reduced the Tigers to just 22 clearances. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Blues are now paying $2.2 to play finals for the first time in 9 years. 

3- Brisbane 

The Lions were challenged by a very good team yet responded exceptionally well, booting 5 goals to 1 in the last quarter to seal victory.  They slowly outmuscled Port in the middle winning the tackle, contested possession and clearance count. Down back they kept Port to the league’s second lowest score of the round, while up front they produced a scoring shot on 42.3% of their inside 50 entires, up on the 40.9% they posted last season and which just happened to lead the league.

Punters- At TopSport, the Lions are second favourites to win the minor premiership and are paying $5.

4- Sydney

It’s kind of astonishing how much Sydney have changed their identity over the past 12 or so months, once again producing a 100+ point performance with Tom Papley on the sidelines and with ‘Buddy’ chipping in with just a solitary major. The Swans scored a goal on every 18.3 disposals which was the league’s most efficient over the opening round. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Swans are paying $2.8 about making the top 4 for the first time since 2016.

5- Geelong

Another year, another demonstration of home and away dominance where the Cats were concerned. Their 66-point shellacking of Essendon was easily the round’s biggest margin and which was aided by having an extra 24 clearances that led to an extra 930 meters gained and produced 15 more inside 50’s. No wonder it was a scoreboard smashing. 11 different Geelong players registered a goal with Tom Hawkins and Tyson Stengle kicking 4 each. 

Punters- At TopSport, Geelong are paying $10 to bring the premiership back to Kardinia Park for the first time in 12 years. 

6- Fremantle

With the exception of a goalless third term the Dockers looked brilliant. While we’ve come to expect Fremantle’s midfield to excel, it’s what they did up front and down back which would have most please purple hearts. Only Geelong (38) and Carlton (31) dialled up more scoring shots than Fremantle’s 28, while defensively, their 57 one percent acts were the third best return of the round. To do all of this without Nat Fyfe, Sean Darcy and Matt Taberner is even more encouraging. 

Punters- They haven’t played finals in 7 years, yet TopSport are offering $2.25 about that drought ending in 2022. 

7- Hawthorn

They sent out their youngest team in 17 years while in his first game in charge Sam Mitchell coached his socks off, devising a game plan which rendered North largely toothless. They stifled the Roos all over the ground, with North reduced to just 69.2% total disposal efficiency and with their brilliant quarter of defenders in James Sicily, Sam Frost, Changkuoth Jiath and Denver Grainger-Barras combining for 32 of the team’s 78 intercept disposals which was a number only the typically outstanding Melbourne bettered. Furthermore, Hawthorn kept North to a scoring shot on just 30.2% of their inside 50 entries. For context’s sake Melbourne dwarfed the league in that stat last year, posting a 30.7% figure en route to a premiership. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Hawks are currently 27.5 point underdogs against Port Adelaide in Round 2. 

8- Collingwood  

Along with Carlton, the Pies were the only betting outsider to salute in round 1. The scored 100+ just once last season, yet dialled up three figures in Craig McRae’s first game in charge, with the new coach promoting a much more progressive game-plan across the board. The Nick Daicos debut was clearly extraordinary, though former Bulldog Patrick Lipinski also put in a massive game helping himself to 30 touches, 7 inside 50s and 8 score involvements.

Punters- That unexpected Collingwood win took their wooden spoon price out to $21 at TopSport. 

9- Gold Coast

The Suns were expected to beat a seriously depleted Eagles outfit and used an 8-goal last quarter to get the chocolates. While Gold Coast aren’t strangers to early season wins, they are to offensive outbursts like this. They housed the leagues’ definitively worst attack in 2021 yet broke out in Round 1 producing a goal on every 22.1 disposals (ranked 3rd in round 1), had 10 individual goal kickers which were all numbers that were jolted by an extra 500 metres gained as well as an additional 34 contested possessions.

Punters- TopSport remain relatively unmoved about the Suns opening round performance, still offering $6 about a debut Gold Coast finals appearance. 

10- Adelaide 

Of the 9 teams that lost, it’s probably the Crows who’d feel least anxious about their overall performance. They rallied after the Dockers ran all over them early, and ultimately fell short by a single point. Ben Keays seems to have developed into a genuine A-grader, while Josh Rachele kicked 5 goals in an electrifying debut. Honourable losses won’t keep cutting the mustard, but this was encouraging for Adelaide.

Punters- The Crows are off the MCG to face Collingwood in Round 2, and TopSport currently have them as 15.5 point underdogs. 

11- Port Adelaide 

The Power’s anxiety won’t be so much about the final result or the way they played, but more so about an injury list that keeps on mounting. What’d also bother Port is not cashing in up forward, amassing just 6 marks inside 50 and producing a scoring shot on just 32.7% of their inside 50 entries, down from 39.4% last year. Obviously getting Charlie Dixon back will help, yet Mitch Georgiades, Todd Marshall and Jeremy Finlayson combining for a single goal and just 10 marks would have not pleased Ken Hinkley at all. 

Punters- At TopSport, Port are paying $2.5 to make it 3-straight top-4 finishers. 

12- GWS Giants 

The Swans got the better of them, but the signs were quite positive, leading for so much of the match and scoring 10 first-half goals without Toby Greene. While the Giants won’t want to fall behind the 8-ball like they did last season, getting this close against a premiership contender won’t cause too too much hand-wringing. Quick one on Tom Green: 31 touches, 8 clearances and 7 tackles were all team highs. Not bad for someone in game number 25.

Punters- The Giants will head to the MCG to play the Tigers in Round 2. Currently, TopSport has them as 4.5 point underdogs.

13- Western Bulldogs

The Dogs will be hunting down redemption for last year’s Grand Final meltdown all season, but to do so they’ll need a lot more than just one quarter bursts. While they did take a halftime lead they were comprehensively smashed by Melbourne for a second-straight time. Up forward they had little outside of Aaron Naughton while down back they looked decidedly disjointed, surrendering 17 marks inside 50 and allowing the Demons to produce a scoring shot on 44.6% of their entries. For context, last season North Melbourne was the very worst team in the league allowing opponents a scoring shot on 44.2% on total inside 50 entries. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Doggies are paying $4 to make a consecutive Grand Finals for the first time in club history. 

14- Richmond 

Like the Bulldogs, another team in the premiership hunt who folded when the going got tough this round. No club got their hands on less footy in round 1, no team laid fewer tackles and no team dialled up less than Richmond’s paltry 22 clearances. Like the Dogs, this is a team that’s full of class and who are usually brilliantly coached. They’ll need all of that class, and all of that coaching-box wisdom to make up for their sub-par openers.

Punters- At TopSport, you can grab $15 about another Tiger premiership in 2022. 

15- West Coast 

It probably went as bad as everybody was fearing, but at least they put up a good fight and hung with the suns until capitulating in the last quarter. It’ll be hard to judge the Eagles until they have anything remotely resembling their full suite of players. With that said, they ranked bottom 6 across round 1 for tackles, contested possessions and clearances while they allowed the Suns a scoring shot on 40.7% of inside 50 entries.

Punters- At TopSport, the Eagles are now second favourites for the wooden spoon and are currently paying $4.2. 

16-  Essendon 

So much optimism and expectation about the Bombers heading in to 2022, yet Essendon served up yet another face plant when pitted against a top-8 team. 

While yes, Essendon did make finals last year they were 1-8 against finals teams in the home and away season and were subsequently spanked by the Dogs in their elimination final. This opening round massacre against the Cats ought to act as a harsh reminder of how far off they are from the very best while also acting as a wake up call to an ultra conservative game plan. In Round 1 the Bombers were the only team to generate 400 touches to go with 119 marks yet they were all empty calories, ill-prepared to work the other way laying the 3rd least amount of tackles while ceding a monstrous 930 metres gained. If nothing else, it’s perhaps a good thing that this dramatic realty check landed now and not later in the year. The bad news is that their immediate shots at redemption come against the two premiership favourites in Brisbane and Melbourne. 

Punters- Despite the loss, TopSport haven’t altered Essendon’s top-8 price too much and are still offering $2.3 about a September appearance. 

17- North Melbourne 

The Roos sent out the league’s 3rd tallest team of the round which resulted in just 8 marks inside 50 and produced the league’s lowest score of the week. Their 77 turnovers around the ground didn’t help things, with the Hawks constantly chipping off North’s consistently poor ball movement. This game was there to be won for the Roos, and it’s the kind of loss that can no longer be tolerated for this success-starved club. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Roos are 4.5 point favourites to knock off West Coast next Sunday at the Docklands. 

18- St Kilda 

This was easily the most concerning performance of the round. A disappointing 2021 meant so many eyes were on Brett Ratten and the Saints heading into Round 1, yet they put in a stinker against a Collingwood team many had pegged as a genuine wooden spoon candidate. Again, it was yet another match where where Jack Steele had to carry the midfield on his shoulders leading the club in disposals, tackles and clearances, with few others stepping up outside of Jade Gresham who picked up 24 touches and kicked a couple of goals in his first game back in nearly a year. A huge positive was Jack Hayes who kicked 3 goals and pulled in 10 marks on debut and acted as yet another feather in the cap of the St Kilda recruiting department who outperform most when it comes to unearthing hidden treasure. 

Punters- The Saints haven’t won a flag since 1966 with TopSport offering $34 about that drought breaking in 2022. 

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