AFL Best Bets and Odds for Round 18, 2023

Last updated: Jul 16, 2023, 8:45AM | Published: Jul 12, 2023, 9:51AM

We have AFL best bets and AFL odds for the upcoming weekend action that is Round 18 of the 2023 AFL season.

Here at Stats Insider, we have used our powerful and well-renowned model to simulate every Round 18 AFL game 10,000 times each, finding the best AFL best bets for punters across the country this weekend.

This week's action begins with Sydney vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday night, with other big games including Melbourne vs Brisbane and Carlton vs Port Adelaide.

MORE: AFL Best Bets

AFL Bets and Odds: Round 18

Gold Coast to defeat St Kilda at $1.60

After letting go of their coach in Stuart Dew this week, the Suns now find themselves as favourites to beat the Saints this Saturday afternoon.

Our model is projecting the Suns as a 63% chance of winning this game, which makes this a good bet at the current odds.

St Kilda will of course be without Max King this week, with the away team now projected as more likely to miss the finals than make them with a tough run home to come.

Gold Coast vs St Kilda is at Metricon Stadium on Saturday, July 15 at 2:10pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).

GWS to defeat Adelaide at $3.25

Our underdog bet of the week is for the GWS Giants to take down the Crows in Adelaide, with our model detecting an edge of 3% on the back odds currently available on the Betfair Exchange.

These two teams sit right next to each other on the ladder with 8-8 records so far this season, with the Giants entering on a four-game win streak, whilst the Crows are starting to tail off with 2-3 record in their last four games.

Although our model does rate Adelaide as the most likely team to win this game, the value play is most certainly to take GWS, with our fair odds for them to win at $2.85.

Adelaide vs GWS is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, July 15 at 7:40pm.

Hawthorn to Defeat North Melbourne at $1.53

Our third AFL best bet for this week is for Hawthorn to win against North Melbourne, with our fair odds of $1.45 meaning punters are gaining a 4% edge by backing them on the Betfair Exchange.

This is the second time these two teams have played this season, with Hawthorn winning the first matchup by 19 points in Tasmania.

North Melbourne vs Hawthorn is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, July 16 at 1:10pm.

AFL Best Bets Round 18, 2023

Our three AFL best bets of the weekend are selected after 10,000 simulations of each game in Round 18.

Gold Coast to win vs St Kilda at $1.60
GWS to win vs Adelaide at $3.25
Hawthorn to win vs North Melbourne at $1.53

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.

If you decide to use our AFL betting tips for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.