AFL Best Bets and Odds for Round 19, 2023
Jul 21, 2023, 5:24AM
We have AFL best bets and AFL odds for the upcoming weekend of action, Round 19 of the 2023 AFL season.
Here at Stats Insider, we have used our powerful and well-renowned model to simulate every Round 19 AFL game 10,000 times each, finding the best AFL best bets for punters across the country this weekend.
This week's action begins with Sydney vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday night, with other big games including Melbourne vs Brisbane and Carlton vs Port Adelaide.
MORE: AFL Best Bets
AFL Bets and Odds: Round 19
Hawthorn +16.5 to defeat Richmond at $1.94
Richmond hosts Hawthorn at the MCG with both teams bringing in winning form to this contest.
The Hawks overcame wayward kicking in the first half to defeat North Melbourne by 48 points, while Richmond were less than impressive against West Coast, but kept their slight finals chances alive with a 38-point victory.
Richmond is at 28.2% probability to make the 2023 AFL finals series according to Stats Insider's AFL futures model.
The Hawks at the line represent our biggest edge of the weekend at 9%, making Hawthorn +16.5 the best AFL bet of Round 19.
Richmond vs Hawthorn is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, July 22 at 1:45pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).
Fremantle to Defeat Sydney at $2.62
Fremantle host Sydney at Optus Stadium on Saturday night, with both teams looking to salvage something from a wasted year.
Sydney is at 0.2% to make the 2023 AFL Finals, while Fremantle is at 0% according to Stats Insider's futures model.
The Dockers have won three of the last four games at Optus Stadium against the Swans, and with the current price on the Betfair Exchange at $2.62, it represents a 3% edge based on our fair odds of $2.40.
This makes Fremantle one of the best AFL bests of Round 19.
Fremantle vs Sydney is at Optus Stadium on Saturday, July 22 at 7:40pm.
GWS to Defeat Gold Coast at $1.66
Our AFL predictive model gives GWS a 66% chance of winning on Sunday against Gold Coast, which makes their current price on Betfair Exchange an edge.
The Giants have dominated the Suns in recent years, winning 10 of the last 11 games. The form of the two teams couldn't be more different either, with the Giants pressing for a finals berth, while the Suns are facing yet another season without a finals appearance.
Our model rates the Giants as a $1.52 chance heading into Sunday's match up, making the $1.66 currently on offer on the Betfair Exchange a 6% edge. This makes GWS one of the AFL best bets of Round 19.
GWS vs Gold Coast is at Manuka Oval on Sunday, July 23 at 1:10pm.
AFL Best Bets Round 19, 2023
Our three AFL best bets of the weekend are selected after 10,000 simulations of each game in Round 19.
- Hawthorn +16.5 vs Richmond at $1.94
- Fremantle to win vs Sydney at $2.62
- GWS to win vs Gold Coast at $1.66
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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