AFL Best Bets for Round 9, 2023

Last updated: May 14, 2023, 11:31AM | Published: May 12, 2023, 1:20AM

Round 9 of the 2023 AFL season is here, and we have AFL predictions and the AFL best bets for the weekend.

At Stats Insider, we have simulated every Round 9 AFL game 10,000 times to find value for punters this weekend.

After going through our AFL best bets, AFL odds, and AFL predictions, our data-driven model has provided the best AFL betting tips for Round 9.

AFL Bets and Odds, Round 9

Richmond +16.5 Against Geelong at $1.89

Richmond host Geelong at the MCG on Friday night to kick off Round 9 of the 2023 AFL season.

Last round, the Tigers recorded their second win of the AFL season, defeating West Coast 104-58, while the Cats were too good for Adelaide by 26 points.

Our AFL predictive model values the Tigers line bet at $1.56, but with Betfair posting $1.89 odds, Richmond +16.5 against Geelong is one of our AFL best bets this weekend.

Richmond vs Geelong is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, May 12 at 7:20pm.

Hawthorn +42.5 Against Melbourne at $2.00

Hawthorn face Melbourne on Saturday afternoon at the MCG.

In Round 8, the Demons were able to overcome Gold Coast by 90-85, while the Hawks were defeated by Fremantle by 69 points.

Our AFL predictive model believes the Hawks at the line are undervalued by Betfair, which makes the Hawthorn +42.5 against Melbourne one of our AFL best bets for Round 9.

Hawthorn vs Melbourne is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, May 13 at 4:35pm.

MORE: 2023 AFL Schedule Difficulty

Brisbane vs Essendon Under 184.5 Total Points at $1.96

Brisbane and Essendon meet at the Gabba on Saturday night.

The Bombers were beaten 87-92 by Port Adelaide in Round 8, while the Lions were 26-point winners against Carlton.

The predicted score for this match up is 104-78 in favour of the Lions, which makes Brisbane vs Essendon Total Game Score Under 184.5 as one of our best AFL bets of Round 9,

Brisbane vs Essendon is at The Gabba on Saturday, May 13 at 7:25pm.

AFL Best Bets Round 9, 2023

Our three AFL best bets of the weekend are selected after 10,000 simulations of every game of Round 9.

Richmond +16.5 Against Geelong at $1.89
Hawthorn +42.5 Against Melbourne at $2.00
Brisbane vs Essendon Under 184.5 Total Points at $1.96

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Todd Davey

Todd Davey is a seasoned journalist and passionate sports fan with a strong interest in the AFL, NBA, and NRL. He has amassed valuable experience through his roles at The Canberra Times, Buddybet, Bets.com.au, and HorseBetting.com.au. With a commitment to delivering trustworthy and current information, Todd is a highly regarded source in Australia for engaging sports content and insightful analysis.