AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Finals Week 1, 2023

The best AFL betting tips for the first week of the 2023 AFL finals have been revealed.

Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of every AFL finals game to generate accurate probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters all over the nation.

The following odds come from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to take advantage of our best AFL bets.

Each one of the suggested bets for week one of the AFL finals come directly from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.

AFL Betting Tips: Finals Week 1, 2023

After crunching the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our leading computer model has found the best footy bets for you in Finals Week 1, 2023.

This week's AFL betting tips feature Carlton vs Sydney and Brisbane vs Port Adelaide, with our advanced predictive model working around the clock to detect valuable edges.

Sydney H2H vs Carlton ($2.82)

• Odds: $2.82 via Betfair
• Fair Odds: $2.62
• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 38.1%
• Match: Carlton vs Sydney (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)

Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Blues and Swans. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Sydney to win, currently offered at odds of $2.82 at Betfair. We have found a significant edge of 2.7% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.

MORE: AFL Value Bets Today

Brisbane H2H vs Port Adelaide ($1.52)

• Odds: $1.52 via Betfair
• Fair Odds: $1.4
• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 68.2%
• Matchup: Brisbane vs Port Adelaide (Saturday, 7:25PM AEST)
  
  

Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Lions and Power. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Brisbane to win, available at $1.52 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 2.0% for this particular bet.

AFL Best Bets for Finals Week 1, 2023

• Carlton vs Sydney: Swans to win ($2.82 at Betfair, 2.7% edge)
• Brisbane vs Port Adelaide: Lions to win ($1.52 at Betfair, 2.0% edge)

MORE: Every AFL Finals Game Simulated 10,000 Times

AFL Finals Games to Bet on This Week

• Melbourne vs Collingwood (Thursday, 8:20PM)
• Sydney vs Carlton (Friday, 8:50PM)
• Gold Coast vs St Kilda (Saturday, 4:20PM)
• Port Adelaide vs Brisbane (Saturday, 8:25PM)

All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.

What Is an Edge in Betting?

The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

What Are Fair Odds in Betting?

Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model believes are the correct odds for a certain bet.

For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.

Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.

Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions

At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.

If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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