AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Preliminary Finals, 2023
Sep 21, 2023, 8:07AM
The best AFL betting tips for preliminary final weekend of the 2023 AFL season have been unveiled.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our trusted computer model to simulate every AFL preliminary finals game 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters all over the nation.
The following odds originate from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to make the most of our best AFL bets.
Each one of the suggested bets for preliminary final weekend of the AFL season come straight from the popular AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
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AFL Betting Tips: Preliminary Finals, 2023
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our independent computer model has determined the best footy bets for Preliminary Finals, 2023.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by multiple bets from the Collingwood vs GWS game, with our advanced predictive model working around the clock to detect valuable edges.
Collingwood vs GWS Over 167.5 Points ($2.02)
- Odds: $2.02 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.63
- Edge: 11.7%
- Probability: 61.2%
- Match: Collingwood vs GWS (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Magpies and Giants. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Over 167.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $2.02 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 11.7% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
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GWS H2H vs Collingwood ($2.58)
- Odds: $2.58 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.40
- Edge: 3.0%
- Probability: 41.7%
- Matchup: Collingwood vs GWS (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, again in the game featuring the Magpies and Giants. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on GWS to win, available at $2.58 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 3.0% for this particular bet.
Carlton H2H vs Brisbane ($3.45)
- Odds: $3.45 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $3.18
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 31.4%
- Matchup: Brisbane vs Carlton (Saturday, 5:15PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Lions and Blues. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Carlton to win at enticing odds of $3.45 through Betfair.
Although our model is projecting Brisbane as more likely to win this game, we have found an edge of 2.4% on the underdogs with the fair odds of $3.18 making this a suggested play.
AFL Best Bets for 2023 Preliminary Finals
- Collingwood vs GWS: Over 167.5 Points ($2.02 at Betfair, 11.7% edge)
- Collingwood vs GWS: Giants to win ($2.58 at Betfair, 3.0% edge)
- Brisbane vs Carlton: Blues to win ($3.45 at Betfair, 2.4% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Finals Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Preliminary Finals Games to Bet on This Week
- Collingwood vs GWS (Friday, 7:50PM)
- Brisbane vs Carlton (Saturday, 5:15PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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