AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 1, 2024
Mar 14, 2024, 1:05PM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 1 of the 2024 AFL season have been revealed.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our powerful computer model to simulate each AFL Round 1 match 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters across the country.
The odds below originate from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to make the most of our best AFL bets.
Each one of the suggested bets for Round 1 of the AFL season come straight from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: Brownlow Predictor
AFL Betting Tips: Round 1, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our famous computer model has found the best footy bets for you in Round 1, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Fremantle vs Brisbane and Carlton vs Richmond, with our advanced predictive model carefully aiming to detect valuable edges.
Fremantle H2H vs Brisbane ($2.55)
- Odds: $2.55 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.81
- Edge: 16.0%
- Probability: 55.2%
- Match: Fremantle vs Brisbane (Sunday, 6:50PM AEDT)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Dockers and Lions. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Fremantle to win, currently offered at odds of $2.55 at TAB. We have found a significant edge of 16.0% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Carlton vs Richmond Under 166.5 Points ($2.06)
- Odds: $2.06 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.81
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 55.2%
- Matchup: Carlton vs Richmond (Thursday, 7:30PM AEDT)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet for this weekend's football action, specifically in the game featuring the Blues and Tigers. We recommend considering an over/under wager on Under 166.5 Points, available at $2.06 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 6.7% for this particular bet.
GWS H2H vs North Melbourne ($1.10)
- Odds: $1.10 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.04
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 96.6%
- Matchup: GWS vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 4:35PM AEDT)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Giants and Kangaroos. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with GWS to win at enticing odds of $1.10 through Betfair. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 5.7% for this particular wager.
Geelong H2H vs St Kilda ($1.53)
- Odds: $1.53 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.41
- Edge: 5.5%
- Probability: 70.8%
- Match: Geelong vs St Kilda (Saturday, 7:30PM AEDT)
Our next best bet for Round 1 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Cats and Saints. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Geelong to win, currently available at $1.53 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 5.5% edge for this particular bet.
AFL Best Bets for Round 1, 2024
- Fremantle vs Brisbane: Dockers to win ($2.55 at TAB, 16.0% edge)
- Carlton vs Richmond: Under 166.5 Points ($2.06 at Betfair, 6.7% edge)
- GWS vs North Melbourne: Giants to win ($1.10 at Betfair, 5.7% edge)
- Geelong vs St Kilda: Cats to win ($1.53 at Betfair, 5.5% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 1 Games to Bet on This Week
- Carlton vs Richmond (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Collingwood vs Sydney (Friday, 7:40PM)
- Essendon vs Hawthorn (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- GWS vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Geelong vs St Kilda (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Gold Coast vs Adelaide (Saturday, 8:10PM)
- Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- Port Adelaide vs West Coast (Sunday, 4:00PM)
- Fremantle vs Brisbane (Sunday, 6:50PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation.
