AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 10, 2024
May 16, 2024, 2:31AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 10 of the 2024 AFL season have been released.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our independent computer model to simulate each AFL Round 10 match 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters all over the nation.
The following odds originate from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to take advantage of this week's best AFL bets.
Each one of the suggested bets for Round 10 of the AFL season come directly from the popular AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 10, 2024
AFL Betting Tips: Round 10, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our famous computer model has determined the best footy bets for you in Round 10, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Brisbane vs Richmond and Gold Coast vs Geelong, with our advanced predictive model working its magic to detect valuable edges.
Richmond +46.5 vs Brisbane ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.63
- Edge: 9.1%
- Probability: 61.4%
- Match: Brisbane vs Richmond (Saturday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Lions and Tigers. We recommend placing a bet on Richmond +46.5, currently offered at odds of $1.91 at TAB. We have detected a significant edge of 9.1% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Cats -2.5 vs Gold Coast ($2.00)
- Odds: $2.00 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.82
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 55%
- Matchup: Gold Coast vs Geelong (Thursday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Suns and Cats. We recommend considering a wager on Geelong 0, available at $2.00 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 5.0% for this particular bet.
Geelong H2H vs Gold Coast ($1.86)
- Odds: $1.86 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.71
- Edge: 4.6%
- Probability: 58.4%
- Matchup: Gold Coast vs Geelong (Thursday, 7:30PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Suns and Cats. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Geelong to win at enticing odds of $1.86 through Betfair. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 4.6% for this particular wager.
Gold Coast vs Geelong Under 161.5 Points ($2.06)
- Odds: $2.06 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.92
- Edge: 3.5%
- Probability: 52.1%
- Match: Gold Coast vs Geelong (Thursday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our next betting tip for Round 10 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Suns and Cats. The play here is an over/under bet on the Under 161.5 Points, currently available at $2.06 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 3.5% edge for this particular bet.
AFL Best Bets for Round 10, 2024
- Brisbane vs Richmond: Tigers +46.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 9.1% edge)
- Gold Coast vs Geelong: Cats -2.5 ($2.00 at Betfair, 5.0% edge)
- Gold Coast vs Geelong: Cats to win ($1.86 at Betfair, 4.6% edge)
- Gold Coast vs Geelong: Under 161.5 Points ($2.06 at Betfair, 3.5% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 10 Games to Bet on This Week
- Gold Coast vs Geelong (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Sydney vs Carlton (Friday, 7:40PM)
- Collingwood vs Adelaide (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- GWS vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- St Kilda vs Fremantle (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Brisbane vs Richmond (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Essendon vs North Melbourne (Sunday, 1:10PM)
- Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn (Sunday, 3:20PM)
- West Coast vs Melbourne (Sunday, 6:20PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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