AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 11, 2024
Last updated: May 23, 2024, 2:33AM | Published: May 23, 2024, 2:04AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 11 of the 2024 AFL season have been released.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of each AFL Round 11 game to produce accurate probabilities. These probabilities are then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters across the country.
The following odds are from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to take advantage of our best AFL bets.
Each one of our suggested bets for Round 11 of the AFL season come straight from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 11, 2024
AFL Betting Tips: Round 11, 2024
After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our independent computer model has determined the best footy bets for Round 11, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by multiple bets from the Hawthorn vs Brisbane game, with our advanced predictive model carefully striving to detect valuable edges.
Hawthorn H2H vs Brisbane ($3.25)
- Odds: $3.25 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.21
- Edge: 14.6%
- Probability: 45.3%
- Match: Hawthorn vs Brisbane (Sunday, 1:10PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Hawks and Lions. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Hawthorn to win, currently offered at odds of $3.25 at Betfair. We have found a significant edge of 14.6% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Hawthorn +16.5 vs Brisbane ($1.82)
- Odds: $1.82 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.45
- Edge: 13.9%
- Probability: 68.9%
- Matchup: Hawthorn vs Brisbane (Sunday, 1:10PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, again in the matchup featuring the Hawks and Lions. We recommend considering a wager on Hawthorn +16.5, available at $1.82 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 13.9% for this particular bet.
Adelaide H2H vs West Coast ($1.25)
- Odds: $1.25 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.13
- Edge: 8.4%
- Probability: 88.4%
- Matchup: Adelaide vs West Coast (Sunday, 4:40PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Crows and Eagles. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Adelaide to win at enticing odds of $1.25 through Betfair. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 8.4% for this particular wager.
North Melbourne +44.5 vs Port Adelaide ($1.95)
- Odds: $1.95 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.68
- Edge: 8.3%
- Probability: 59.6%
- Match: North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our next edge for Round 11 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Kangaroos and Power. The play here is a line bet on the North Melbourne +44.5, currently available at $1.95 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 8.3% edge for this particular bet.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Under 165.5 Points ($2.00)
- Odds: $2.00 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.82
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 54.9%
- Matchup: Hawthorn vs. Brisbane (Sunday, 1:10PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Hawks vs. Lions game. Our model has its eyes on Under 165.5 Points, coming in at $2.00 odds. When comparing the best available over/under odds at Betfair to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 4.9% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 11, 2024
- Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Hawks to win ($3.25 at Betfair, 14.6% edge)
- Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Hawks +16.5 ($1.82 at Betfair, 13.9% edge)
- Adelaide vs West Coast: Crows to win ($1.25 at Betfair, 8.4% edge)
- North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide: Kangaroos +44.5 ($1.95 at Betfair, 8.3% edge)
- Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Under 165.5 Points ($2.00 at Betfair, 4.9% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 11 Games to Bet on This Week
- Western Bulldogs vs Sydney (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Fremantle vs Collingwood (Friday, 8:10PM)
- North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Carlton vs Gold Coast (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Geelong vs GWS (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Richmond vs Essendon (Saturday, 7:40PM)
- Hawthorn vs Brisbane (Sunday, 1:10PM)
- Melbourne vs St Kilda (Sunday, 3:20PM)
- Adelaide vs West Coast (Sunday, 4:40PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed Sports Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation.
