AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 12, 2024
May 30, 2024, 2:32AMThe best AFL betting tips for Round 12 of the 2024 AFL season have been released.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our reliable computer model to simulate each AFL Round 12 match 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters all over the country.
The odds below come from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to make the most of this week's best AFL bets.
All of our recommended bets for Round 12 of the AFL season come straight from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 12, 2024
AFL Betting Tips: Round 12, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our famous computer model has determined the best footy bets for you in Round 12, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by Gold Coast vs Essendon and Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs, with our advanced predictive model carefully aiming to detect valuable edges.
Gold Coast vs Essendon Under 167.5 Points ($1.81)
- Odds: $1.81 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.62
- Edge: 6.6%
- Probability: 61.9%
- Match: Gold Coast vs Essendon (Sunday, 4:00PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Suns and Bombers. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Under 167.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $1.81 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 6.6% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs Under 170.5 Points ($1.82)
- Odds: $1.82 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.63
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 61.2%
- Matchup: Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Magpies and Bulldogs. We recommend considering an over/under wager on Under 170.5 Points, available at $1.82 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 6.2% for this particular bet.
Gold Coast H2H vs Essendon ($1.73)
- Odds: $1.73 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.62
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 61.9%
- Matchup: Gold Coast vs Essendon (Sunday, 4:00PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Suns and Bombers. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Gold Coast to win at enticing odds of $1.73 through Betfair. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 4.1% for this particular wager.
Geelong H2H vs Richmond ($1.09)
- Odds: $1.09 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.05
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 94.9%
- Match: Geelong vs Richmond (Saturday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our next edge for Round 12 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Cats and Tigers. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Geelong to win, currently available at $1.09 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 3.1% edge for this particular bet.
Hawthorn H2H vs Adelaide ($2.22)
- Odds: $2.22 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.08
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 48.1%
- Matchup: Hawthorn vs. Adelaide (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Hawks vs. Crows matchup. Our model has its eyes on Hawthorn to win, coming in at $2.22 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 3.1% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 12, 2024
- Gold Coast vs Essendon: Under 167.5 Points ($1.81 at Betfair, 6.6% edge)
- Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs: Under 170.5 Points ($1.82 at Betfair, 6.2% edge)
- Gold Coast vs Essendon: Suns to win ($1.73 at Betfair, 4.1% edge)
- Geelong vs Richmond: Cats to win ($1.09 at Betfair, 3.1% edge)
- Hawthorn vs Adelaide: Hawks to win ($2.22 at Betfair, 3.1% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 12 Games to Bet on This Week
- Port Adelaide vs Carlton (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, 7:40PM)
- Hawthorn vs Adelaide (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- West Coast vs St Kilda (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Geelong vs Richmond (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Melbourne vs Fremantle (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- Gold Coast vs Essendon (Sunday, 4:00PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions
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