AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 13, 2024
Last updated: Jun 6, 2024, 2:31AM | Published: Jun 6, 2024, 2:01AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 13 of the 2024 AFL season have been released.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has conducted 10,000 simulations of every AFL Round 13 match to generate reliable probabilities. These probabilities are then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters all over the nation.
The following odds come from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to make the most of our best AFL bets.
Each one of the recommended bets for Round 13 of the AFL season come straight from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 13, 2024
AFL Betting Tips: Round 13, 2024
After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our independent computer model has determined the best footy bets for Round 13, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane and Essendon vs Carlton, with our advanced predictive model carefully striving to detect valuable edges.
Western Bulldogs H2H vs Brisbane ($1.63)
- Odds: $1.63 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.38
- Edge: 11.3%
- Probability: 72.6%
- Match: Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Bulldogs and Lions. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Western Bulldogs to win, currently offered at odds of $1.63 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 11.3% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Essendon vs Carlton Under 171.5 Points ($1.81)
- Odds: $1.81 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.56
- Edge: 8.9%
- Probability: 64.1%
- Matchup: Essendon vs Carlton (Sunday, 7:20PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Bombers and Blues. We recommend considering an over/under wager on Under 171.5 Points, available at $1.81 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 8.9% for this particular bet.
Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Over 171.5 Points ($1.82)
- Odds: $1.82 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.69
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 59%
- Matchup: Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Bulldogs and Lions. The play here is an over/under bet, with Over 171.5 Points at enticing odds of $1.82 through Betfair. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 4.1% for this particular wager.
Gold Coast H2H vs St Kilda ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.78
- Edge: 3.8%
- Probability: 56.2%
- Match: St Kilda vs Gold Coast (Saturday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our next bet for Round 13 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Saints and Suns. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Gold Coast to win, currently available at $1.91 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 3.8% edge for this particular bet.
AFL Best Bets for Round 13, 2024
- Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane: Bulldogs to win ($1.63 at Betfair, 11.3% edge)
- Essendon vs Carlton: Under 171.5 Points ($1.81 at Betfair, 8.9% edge)
- Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane: Over 171.5 Points ($1.82 at Betfair, 4.1% edge)
- St Kilda vs Gold Coast: Suns to win ($1.91 at Betfair, 3.8% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 13 Games to Bet on This Week
- Adelaide vs Richmond (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane (Friday, 7:40PM)
- Hawthorn vs GWS (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- West Coast vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- St Kilda vs Gold Coast (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Sydney vs Geelong (Sunday, 3:20PM)
- Essendon vs Carlton (Sunday, 7:20PM)
- Collingwood vs Melbourne (Monday, 3:20PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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