AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 14, 2024
Last updated: Jun 13, 2024, 2:31AM | Published: Jun 13, 2024, 2:03AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 14 of the 2024 AFL season have been unveiled.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of each AFL Round 14 game to produce accurate probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters across the nation.
The following odds come from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to make the most of this week's best AFL bets.
Each one of our recommended bets for Round 14 of the AFL season come directly from the popular AFL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 14, 2024
AFL Betting Tips: Round 14, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our leading computer model has found the best footy bets for you in Round 14, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by multiple bets from the Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle game, with our advanced predictive model carefully aiming to detect valuable edges.
Western Bulldogs H2H vs Fremantle ($1.80)
- Odds: $1.80 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.51
- Edge: 10.7%
- Probability: 66.2%
- Match: Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Bulldogs and Dockers. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Western Bulldogs to win, currently offered at odds of $1.80 at Betfair. We have found a significant edge of 10.7% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Bulldogs -5.5 vs Fremantle ($2.00)
- Odds: $2.00 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.72
- Edge: 8.0%
- Probability: 58%
- Matchup: Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, again in the game featuring the Bulldogs and Dockers. We recommend considering a wager on Western Bulldogs 0, available at $2.00 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 8.0% for this particular bet.
St Kilda +27.5 vs Brisbane ($2.10)
- Odds: $2.10 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.85
- Edge: 6.6%
- Probability: 54.2%
- Matchup: Brisbane vs St Kilda (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Lions and Saints. The play here is a line bet, with St Kilda +27.5 at enticing odds of $2.10 through Betfair. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 6.6% for this particular wager.
Hawthorn H2H vs Richmond ($1.54)
- Odds: $1.54 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.40
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 71.2%
- Match: Richmond vs Hawthorn (Saturday, 4:35PM AEST)
Our next best bet for Round 14 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Tigers and Hawks. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Hawthorn to win, currently available at $1.54 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 6.2% edge for this particular bet.
GWS H2H vs Port Adelaide ($1.73)
- Odds: $1.73 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.58
- Edge: 5.6%
- Probability: 63.4%
- Matchup: GWS vs. Port Adelaide (Sunday, 4:00PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Giants vs. Power game. Our model has its eyes on GWS to win, coming in at $1.73 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 5.6% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 14, 2024
- Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle: Bulldogs to win ($1.80 at Betfair, 10.7% edge)
- Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle: Bulldogs -5.5 ($2.00 at Betfair, 8.0% edge)
- Brisbane vs St Kilda: Saints +27.5 ($2.10 at Betfair, 6.6% edge)
- Richmond vs Hawthorn: Hawks to win ($1.54 at Betfair, 6.2% edge)
- GWS vs Port Adelaide: Giants to win ($1.73 at Betfair, 5.6% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 14 Games to Bet on This Week
- Brisbane vs St Kilda (Friday, 7:40PM)
- Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Richmond vs Hawthorn (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Adelaide vs Sydney (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- North Melbourne vs Collingwood (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- GWS vs Port Adelaide (Sunday, 4:00PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter Sports Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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