AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 15, 2024
Last updated: Jun 20, 2024, 2:33AM | Published: Jun 20, 2024, 2:03AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 15 of the 2024 AFL season have been revealed.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has conducted 10,000 simulations of every AFL Round 15 game to produce reliable probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters all over the country.
The following odds originate from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to take advantage of this week's best AFL bets.
All of our suggested bets for Round 15 of the AFL season come directly from the popular AFL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 15, 2024
AFL Betting Tips: Round 15, 2024
After crunching the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our famous computer model has determined the best footy bets for Round 15, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Carlton vs Geelong and GWS vs Sydney, with our advanced predictive model working around the clock to detect valuable edges.
Carlton vs Geelong Under 172.5 Points ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.62
- Edge: 9.3%
- Probability: 61.7%
- Match: Carlton vs Geelong (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Blues and Cats. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Under 172.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $1.91 at TAB. We have found a significant edge of 9.3% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
GWS H2H vs Sydney ($2.98)
- Odds: $2.98 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.56
- Edge: 5.5%
- Probability: 39%
- Matchup: GWS vs Sydney (Saturday, 4:35PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Giants and Swans. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on GWS to win, available at $2.98 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 5.5% for this particular bet.
GWS +15.5 vs Sydney ($1.80)
- Odds: $1.80 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.65
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 60.6%
- Matchup: GWS vs Sydney (Saturday, 4:35PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Giants and Swans. The play here is a line bet, with GWS +15.5 at enticing odds of $1.80 through Betfair. Our model has found an advantageous edge of 5.0% for this particular wager.
Essendon H2H vs West Coast ($1.18)
- Odds: $1.18 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.12
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 89.6%
- Match: Essendon vs West Coast (Sunday, 1:00PM AEST)
Our next best bet for Round 15 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Bombers and Eagles. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Essendon to win, currently available at $1.18 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 4.8% edge for this particular bet.
Geelong H2H vs Carlton ($2.42)
- Odds: $2.42 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.19
- Edge: 4.3%
- Probability: 45.7%
- Matchup: Carlton vs. Geelong (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Blues vs. Cats matchup. Our model has its eyes on Geelong to win, coming in at $2.42 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 4.3% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 15, 2024
- Carlton vs Geelong: Under 172.5 Points ($1.91 at TAB, 9.3% edge)
- GWS vs Sydney: Giants to win ($2.98 at Betfair, 5.5% edge)
- GWS vs Sydney: Giants +15.5 ($1.80 at Betfair, 5.0% edge)
- Essendon vs West Coast: Bombers to win ($1.18 at Betfair, 4.8% edge)
- Carlton vs Geelong: Cats to win ($2.42 at Betfair, 4.3% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 15 Games to Bet on This Week
- Carlton vs Geelong (Friday, 7:40PM)
- Port Adelaide vs Brisbane (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- GWS vs Sydney (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Melbourne vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Essendon vs West Coast (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- Fremantle vs Gold Coast (Sunday, 4:00PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter AFL Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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