AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 16, 2024
Last updated: Jun 27, 2024, 2:31AM | Published: Jun 27, 2024, 2:02AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 16 of the 2024 AFL season have been released.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of every AFL Round 16 game to generate reliable probabilities. These probabilities are then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters all over the country.
The following odds come from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to make the most of this week's best AFL bets.
Each one of the recommended bets for Round 16 of the AFL season come directly from the popular AFL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 16, 2024
AFL Betting Tips: Round 16, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our leading computer model has determined the best footy bets for Round 16, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Brisbane vs Melbourne and Geelong vs Essendon, with our advanced predictive model carefully aiming to detect valuable edges.
Melbourne +29.5 vs Brisbane ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.66
- Edge: 7.9%
- Probability: 60.3%
- Match: Brisbane vs Melbourne (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Lions and Demons. We recommend placing a bet on Melbourne +29.5, currently offered at odds of $1.91 at TAB. We have detected a significant edge of 7.9% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Geelong H2H vs Essendon ($2.12)
- Odds: $2.12 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.92
- Edge: 5.1%
- Probability: 52.2%
- Matchup: Geelong vs Essendon (Saturday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Cats and Bombers. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Geelong to win, available at $2.12 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 5.1% for this particular bet.
Gold Coast H2H vs Collingwood ($2.06)
- Odds: $2.06 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.88
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 53.3%
- Matchup: Gold Coast vs Collingwood (Saturday, 4:35PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Suns and Magpies. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Gold Coast to win at enticing odds of $2.06 through Betfair. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 4.8% for this particular wager.
Western Bulldogs H2H vs North Melbourne ($1.16)
- Odds: $1.16 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.10
- Edge: 4.3%
- Probability: 90.5%
- Match: North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our next betting tip for Round 16 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Kangaroos and Bulldogs. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Western Bulldogs to win, currently available at $1.16 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 4.3% edge for this particular bet.
Melbourne H2H vs Brisbane ($5.70)
- Odds: $5.70 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $4.78
- Edge: 3.3%
- Probability: 20.9%
- Matchup: Brisbane vs. Melbourne (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Lions vs. Demons matchup. Our model has its eyes on Melbourne to win, coming in at $5.70 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 3.3% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 16, 2024
- Brisbane vs Melbourne: Demons +29.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 7.9% edge)
- Geelong vs Essendon: Cats to win ($2.12 at Betfair, 5.1% edge)
- Gold Coast vs Collingwood: Suns to win ($2.06 at Betfair, 4.8% edge)
- North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs: Bulldogs to win ($1.16 at Betfair, 4.3% edge)
- Brisbane vs Melbourne: Demons to win ($5.70 at Betfair, 3.3% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 16 Games to Bet on This Week
- Brisbane vs Melbourne (Friday, 7:40PM)
- North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Sydney vs Fremantle (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Gold Coast vs Collingwood (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Geelong vs Essendon (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Adelaide vs GWS (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- St Kilda vs Port Adelaide (Sunday, 1:10PM)
- Richmond vs Carlton (Sunday, 3:20PM)
- West Coast vs Hawthorn (Sunday, 4:40PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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