AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 17, 2024
Jul 4, 2024, 7:22AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 17 of the 2024 AFL season have been revealed.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of each AFL Round 17 game to generate reliable probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters all over the country.
The following odds are from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to make the most of this week's best AFL bets.
Each one of our suggested bets for Round 17 of the AFL season come straight from the popular AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 17, 2024
AFL Betting Tips: Round 17, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our independent computer model has found the best footy bets for you in Round 17, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Melbourne vs West Coast and Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs, with our advanced predictive model working its magic to detect valuable edges.
West Coast +34.5 vs Melbourne ($1.91)
- Odds: $1.91 via TAB
- Fair Odds: $1.61
- Edge: 9.6%
- Probability: 62%
- Match: Melbourne vs West Coast (Sunday, 1:10PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Demons and Eagles. We recommend placing a bet on West Coast +34.5, currently offered at odds of $1.91 at TAB. We have found a significant edge of 9.6% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
Western Bulldogs H2H vs Port Adelaide ($1.83)
- Odds: $1.83 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.69
- Edge: 4.6%
- Probability: 59.3%
- Matchup: Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Power and Bulldogs. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Western Bulldogs to win, available at $1.83 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 4.6% for this particular bet.
MORE: AFL Best Bets Today
St Kilda H2H vs Sydney ($4.20)
- Odds: $4.20 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $3.55
- Edge: 4.4%
- Probability: 28.2%
- Matchup: St Kilda vs Sydney (Sunday, 3:20PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Saints and Swans. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with St Kilda to win at enticing odds of $4.20 through Betfair.
Although our model is projecting Sydney as more likely to win this game, we have found an edge of 4.4% on the underdogs with the fair odds of $3.55 making this a suggested play.
Collingwood vs Essendon Under 167.5 Points ($1.86)
- Odds: $1.86 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.75
- Edge: 3.4%
- Probability: 57.2%
- Match: Collingwood vs Essendon (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Our next edge for Round 17 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Magpies and Bombers. The play here is an over/under bet on the Under 167.5 Points, currently available at $1.86 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 3.4% edge for this particular bet.
AFL Best Bets for Round 17, 2024
- Melbourne vs West Coast: Eagles +34.5 ($1.91 at TAB, 9.6% edge)
- Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs: Bulldogs to win ($1.83 at Betfair, 4.6% edge)
- St Kilda vs Sydney: Saints to win ($4.20 at Betfair, 4.4% edge)
- Collingwood vs Essendon: Under 167.5 Points ($1.86 at Betfair, 3.4% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 17 Games to Bet on This Week
- Collingwood vs Essendon (Friday, 7:40PM)
- North Melbourne vs Gold Coast (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Geelong vs Hawthorn (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- GWS vs Carlton (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Fremantle vs Richmond (Saturday, 8:10PM)
- Melbourne vs West Coast (Sunday, 1:10PM)
- St Kilda vs Sydney (Sunday, 3:20PM)
- Brisbane vs Adelaide (Sunday, 4:10PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed Sports Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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