AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 18, 2024
Last updated: Jul 11, 2024, 2:32AM | Published: Jul 11, 2024, 2:02AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 18 of the 2024 AFL season have been released.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our reliable computer model to simulate each AFL Round 18 match 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters all over the nation.
The following odds originate from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to take advantage of our best AFL bets.
Each one of the recommended bets for Round 18 of the AFL season come directly from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 18, 2024
AFL Betting Tips: Round 18, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our independent computer model has found the best footy bets for you in Round 18, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Adelaide vs St Kilda and Hawthorn vs Fremantle, with our advanced predictive model working around the clock to detect valuable edges.
Adelaide vs St Kilda Over 158.5 Points ($1.82)
- Odds: $1.82 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.32
- Edge: 20.9%
- Probability: 75.8%
- Match: Adelaide vs St Kilda (Saturday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Crows and Saints. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Over 158.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $1.82 at Betfair. We have found a significant edge of 20.9% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
Hawthorn vs Fremantle Over 159.5 Points ($1.81)
- Odds: $1.81 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.34
- Edge: 19.6%
- Probability: 74.9%
- Matchup: Hawthorn vs Fremantle (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Hawks and Dockers. We recommend considering an over/under wager on Over 159.5 Points, available at $1.81 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 19.6% for this particular bet.
MORE: AFL Best Bets Today
Melbourne vs Essendon Over 165.5 Points ($1.82)
- Odds: $1.82 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.54
- Edge: 10.0%
- Probability: 64.9%
- Matchup: Melbourne vs Essendon (Saturday, 7:30PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Demons and Bombers. The play here is an over/under bet, with Over 165.5 Points at enticing odds of $1.82 through Betfair. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 10.0% for this particular wager.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Under 176.5 Points ($1.81)
- Odds: $1.81 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.58
- Edge: 8.0%
- Probability: 63.2%
- Match: Western Bulldogs vs Carlton (Saturday, 4:35PM AEST)
Our next edge for Round 18 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Bulldogs and Blues. The play here is an over/under bet on the Under 176.5 Points, currently available at $1.81 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 8.0% edge for this particular bet.
Gold Coast H2H vs Port Adelaide ($1.73)
- Odds: $1.73 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.54
- Edge: 7.0%
- Probability: 64.8%
- Matchup: Gold Coast vs. Port Adelaide (Sunday, 1:10PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Suns vs. Power matchup. Our model has its eyes on Gold Coast to win, coming in at $1.73 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 7.0% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 18, 2024
- Adelaide vs St Kilda: Over 158.5 Points ($1.82 at Betfair, 20.9% edge)
- Hawthorn vs Fremantle: Over 159.5 Points ($1.81 at Betfair, 19.6% edge)
- Melbourne vs Essendon: Over 165.5 Points ($1.82 at Betfair, 10.0% edge)
- Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Under 176.5 Points ($1.81 at Betfair, 8.0% edge)
- Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide: Suns to win ($1.73 at Betfair, 7.0% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 18 Games to Bet on This Week
- Collingwood vs Geelong (Friday, 7:40PM)
- Hawthorn vs Fremantle (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Sydney vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Western Bulldogs vs Carlton (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Melbourne vs Essendon (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Adelaide vs St Kilda (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide (Sunday, 1:10PM)
- Richmond vs GWS (Sunday, 3:20PM)
- West Coast vs Brisbane (Sunday, 4:40PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model thinks are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation.
