AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 22, 2023
Last updated: Aug 13, 2023, 10:05AM | Published: Aug 11, 2023, 2:03AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 22 of the 2023 AFL season have been unveiled.
Led by its expert team of data analyists, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of each AFL Round 22 game to provide accurate probabilities, which we then compare to the available odds to find the best AFL bets for punters across the nation.
The odds below were taken from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now and make the most of our best AFL bets at Betfair.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs and Carlton vs Melbourne, with our advanced predictive model carefully striving to detect valuable edges.
All of the recommended bets for Round 22 of the AFL season are sourced directly from Stats Insider's popular AFL Best Bets page.
AFL Betting Tips: Round 22, 2023
After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our leading predictive model has determined the best footy bets for you to make in Round 22, 2023.
Hawthorn to win vs Western Bulldogs ($2.94)
- Odds: $2.94 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.52
- Edge: 5.6%
- Probability: 39.7%
- Match: Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs (1:10PM AEST, Sunday)
Our model has pinpointed the AFL best bet this week, focusing on the matchup between the Hawks and Bulldogs. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Hawthorn to Win, currently offered at odds of $2.94 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 5.6% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Best Bets This Weekend
Melbourne to Win vs Carlton ($1.66)
- Odds: $1.66 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.54
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 64.8%
- Matchup: Carlton vs Melbourne (7:30PM AEST, Saturday)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Blues and Demons. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Melbourne to win, available at $1.66 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 4.5% for this particular bet.
Fremantle to Win vs West Coast ($1.20)
- Odds: $1.20 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.14
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 87.8%
- Matchup: West Coast vs Fremantle (8:10PM AEST, Saturday)
Another top pick for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Eagles and Dockers. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Fremantle to win at enticing odds of $1.20 through Betfair. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 4.5% for this particular wager.
North Melbourne to win vs Essendon ($4.00)
- Odds: $4.00 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $3.46
- Edge: 3.9%
- Probability: 28.9%
- Match: North Melbourne vs Essendon (1:45PM AEST, Saturday)
Our next bet for Round 22 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Kangaroos and Bombers. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the North Melbourne to win, currently available at $4.00 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 3.9% edge for this particular bet.
Sydney to win vs Gold Coast ($1.35)
- Odds: $1.35 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.29
- Edge: 3.3%
- Probability: 77.4%
- Matchup: Sydney vs. Gold Coast (1:45PM AEST, Saturday)
Next up, we're looking at the Swans vs. Suns matchup. Our model has its eyes on Sydney to win, coming in at $1.35 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 3.3% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 22, 2023
- Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs: Hawks to win ($2.94 at Betfair, 5.6% edge)
- Carlton vs Melbourne: Demons to win ($1.66 at Betfair, 4.5% edge)
- West Coast vs Fremantle: Dockers to win ($1.20 at Betfair, 4.5% edge)
- North Melbourne vs Essendon: Kangaroos to win ($4.00 at Betfair, 3.9% edge)
- Sydney vs Gold Coast: Swans to win ($1.35 at Betfair, 3.3% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 22 Games to Bet on This Week
- Geelong vs Collingwood (7:50PM, Friday)
- Gold Coast vs Sydney (1:45PM, Saturday)
- Essendon vs North Melbourne (1:45PM, Saturday)
- Adelaide vs Brisbane (4:35PM, Saturday)
- Melbourne vs Carlton (7:30PM, Saturday)
- Fremantle vs West Coast (8:10PM, Saturday)
- Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn (1:10PM, Sunday)
- Richmond vs St Kilda (3:20PM, Sunday)
- Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide (4:40PM, Sunday)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
Make Smarter AFL Betting Decisions
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