AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 23, 2023
Last updated: Aug 20, 2023, 10:30AM | Published: Aug 17, 2023, 2:03PM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 23 of the 2023 AFL season have been unveiled.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of each AFL Round 23 game to produce accurate probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters all over the nation.
The odds below are from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to take advantage of this week's best AFL bets.
All of our recommended bets for Round 23 of the AFL season come straight from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 23, 2023
AFL Betting Tips: Round 23, 2023
After diving deep into the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our leading computer model has found the best footy bets for Round 23, 2023.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by Gold Coast vs Carlton and Collingwood vs Brisbane, with our advanced predictive model working around the clock to detect valuable edges.
Gold Coast H2H vs Carlton ($2.58)
- Odds: $2.58 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.27
- Edge: 5.2%
- Probability: 44%
- Match: Gold Coast vs Carlton (Saturday, 2:10PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Suns and Blues. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Gold Coast to win, currently offered at odds of $2.58 at Betfair. We have found a significant edge of 5.2% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Best Bets This Weekend
Collingwood vs Brisbane Under 171.5 Points ($2.00)
- Odds: $2.00 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.84
- Edge: 4.4%
- Probability: 54.4%
- Matchup: Collingwood vs Brisbane (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Magpies and Lions. We recommend considering an over/under wager on Under 171.5 Points, available at $2.00 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 4.4% for this particular bet.
St Kilda H2H vs Geelong ($2.36)
- Odds: $2.36 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.15
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 46.5%
- Matchup: St Kilda vs Geelong (Saturday, 7:25PM AEST)
Another top pick for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Saints and Cats. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with St Kilda to win at enticing odds of $2.36 through Betfair. Our model has found an advantageous edge of 4.2% for this particular wager.
Richmond H2H vs North Melbourne ($1.22)
- Odds: $1.22 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.17
- Edge: 3.8%
- Probability: 85.7%
- Match: Richmond vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our next edge for Round 23 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Tigers and Kangaroos. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Richmond to win, currently available at $1.22 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 3.8% edge for this particular bet.
AFL Best Bets for Round 23, 2023
- Gold Coast vs Carlton: Suns to win ($2.58 at Betfair, 5.2% edge)
- Collingwood vs Brisbane: Under 171.5 Points ($2.00 at Betfair, 4.4% edge)
- St Kilda vs Geelong: Saints to win ($2.36 at Betfair, 4.2% edge)
- Richmond vs North Melbourne: Tigers to win ($1.22 at Betfair, 3.8% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 23 Games to Bet on This Week
- Brisbane vs Collingwood (Friday, 7:50PM)
- North Melbourne vs Richmond (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Carlton vs Gold Coast (Saturday, 2:10PM)
- Essendon vs Gold Coast (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Geelong vs St Kilda (Saturday, 7:25PM)
- Sydney vs Adelaide (Saturday, 7:40PM)
- West Coast vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday, 1:10PM)
- Hawthorn vs Melbourne (Sunday, 3:20PM)
- Port Adelaide vs Fremantle (Sunday, 4:40PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed Sports Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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