AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 24, 2023
Last updated: Aug 25, 2023, 7:00AM | Published: Aug 24, 2023, 2:04PM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 24 of the 2023 AFL season have been unveiled.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our independent computer model to simulate each AFL Round 24 match 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters across the country.
The odds below are from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to take advantage of our best AFL bets.
All of the suggested bets for Round 24 of the AFL season come directly from the popular AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 24, 2023
AFL Betting Tips: Round 24, 2023
After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our leading computer model has found the best footy bets for you in Round 24, 2023.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Sydney vs Melbourne and Hawthorn vs Fremantle, with our advanced predictive model working around the clock to detect valuable edges.
Sydney H2H vs Melbourne ($1.90)
- Odds: $1.90 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.74
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 57.6%
- Match: Sydney vs Melbourne (Sunday, 3:20PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Swans and Demons. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Sydney to win, currently offered at odds of $1.90 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 4.9% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Hawthorn H2H vs Fremantle ($1.73)
- Odds: $1.73 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.60
- Edge: 4.6%
- Probability: 62.4%
- Matchup: Hawthorn vs Fremantle (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Hawks and Dockers. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Hawthorn to win, available at $1.73 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 4.6% for this particular bet.
Adelaide H2H vs West Coast ($1.23)
- Odds: $1.23 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.17
- Edge: 4.5%
- Probability: 85.8%
- Matchup: West Coast vs Adelaide (Saturday, 8:10PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Eagles and Crows. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Adelaide to win at enticing odds of $1.23 through Betfair. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 4.5% for this particular wager.
Essendon +30.5 vs Collingwood ($1.97)
- Odds: $1.97 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.81
- Edge: 4.3%
- Probability: 55.1%
- Match: Essendon vs Collingwood (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
Our next edge for Round 24 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Bombers and Magpies. The play here is a line bet on the Essendon +30.5, currently available at $1.97 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 4.3% edge for this particular bet.
North Melbourne H2H vs Gold Coast ($5.10)
- Odds: $5.10 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $4.50
- Edge: 2.6%
- Probability: 22.2%
- Matchup: North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Kangaroos vs. Suns game. Our model has its eyes on North Melbourne to win, coming in at $5.10 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 2.6% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 24, 2023
- Sydney vs Melbourne: Swans to win ($1.90 at Betfair, 4.9% edge)
- Hawthorn vs Fremantle: Hawks to win ($1.73 at Betfair, 4.6% edge)
- West Coast vs Adelaide: Crows to win ($1.23 at Betfair, 4.5% edge)
- Essendon vs Collingwood: Bombers +30.5 ($1.97 at Betfair, 4.3% edge)
- North Melbourne vs Gold Coast: Kangaroos to win ($5.10 at Betfair, 2.6% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 24 Games to Bet on This Week
- Collingwood vs Essendon (Friday, 7:50PM)
- Fremantle vs Hawthorn (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Gold Coast vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- St Kilda vs Brisbane (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Adelaide vs West Coast (Saturday, 8:10PM)
- Richmond vs Port Adelaide (Sunday, 12:30PM)
- Melbourne vs Sydney (Sunday, 3:20PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter Sports Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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