AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 3, 2024
Last updated: Mar 28, 2024, 1:30AM | Published: Mar 28, 2024, 1:01AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 3 of the 2024 AFL season have been revealed.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our independent computer model to simulate every AFL Round 3 match 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters all over the country.
The odds below come from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to take advantage of this week's best AFL bets.
All of the suggested bets for Round 3 of the AFL season come straight from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
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AFL Betting Tips: Round 3, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our independent computer model has determined the best footy bets for Round 3, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by Essendon vs St Kilda and Brisbane vs Collingwood, with our advanced predictive model working its magic to detect valuable edges.
St Kilda H2H vs Essendon ($1.68)
- Odds: $1.68 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.52
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 65.8%
- Match: Essendon vs St Kilda (Saturday, 4:20PM AEDT)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Bombers and Saints. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on St Kilda to win, currently offered at odds of $1.68 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 6.2% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Brisbane vs Collingwood Under 170.5 Points ($1.89)
- Odds: $1.89 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.72
- Edge: 5.1%
- Probability: 58%
- Matchup: Brisbane vs Collingwood (Thursday, 7:30PM AEDT)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Lions and Magpies. We recommend considering an over/under wager on Under 170.5 Points, available at $1.89 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 5.1% for this particular bet.
Western Bulldogs H2H vs West Coast ($1.08)
- Odds: $1.08 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.04
- Edge: 3.3%
- Probability: 95.9%
- Matchup: Western Bulldogs vs West Coast (Sunday, 1:00PM AEDT)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Bulldogs and Eagles. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Western Bulldogs to win at enticing odds of $1.08 through Betfair. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 3.3% for this particular wager.
Carlton H2H vs North Melbourne ($1.17)
- Odds: $1.17 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.13
- Edge: 3.2%
- Probability: 88.6%
- Match: North Melbourne vs Carlton (Friday, 4:20PM AEDT)
Our next betting tip for Round 3 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Kangaroos and Blues. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Carlton to win, currently available at $1.17 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 3.2% edge for this particular bet.
AFL Best Bets for Round 3, 2024
- Essendon vs St Kilda: Saints to win ($1.68 at Betfair, 6.2% edge)
- Brisbane vs Collingwood: Under 170.5 Points ($1.89 at Betfair, 5.1% edge)
- Western Bulldogs vs West Coast: Bulldogs to win ($1.08 at Betfair, 3.3% edge)
- North Melbourne vs Carlton: Blues to win ($1.17 at Betfair, 3.2% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 3 Games to Bet on This Week
- Brisbane vs Collingwood (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- North Melbourne vs Carlton (Friday, 4:20PM)
- Fremantle vs Adelaide (Friday, 7:20PM)
- Essendon vs St Kilda (Saturday, 4:20PM)
- Port Adelaide vs Melbourne (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Western Bulldogs vs West Coast (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- Richmond vs Sydney (Sunday, 4:00PM)
- Hawthorn vs Geelong (Monday, 3:20PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed Sports Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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