AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 4, 2024
Apr 4, 2024, 1:04AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 4 of the 2024 AFL season have been revealed.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our reliable computer model to simulate every AFL Round 4 match 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters all over the country.
The odds below are from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to take advantage of this week's best AFL bets.
All of the suggested bets for Round 4 of the AFL season come directly from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
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AFL Betting Tips: Round 4, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our leading computer model has determined the best footy bets for Round 4, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Brisbane vs North Melbourne and Adelaide vs Melbourne, with our advanced predictive model working its magic to detect valuable edges.
Brisbane H2H vs North Melbourne ($1.17)
- Odds: $1.17 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.10
- Edge: 5.8%
- Probability: 91.2%
- Match: Brisbane vs North Melbourne (Friday, 5:10PM AEDT)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Lions and Kangaroos. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Brisbane to win, currently offered at odds of $1.17 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 5.8% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Adelaide H2H vs Melbourne ($2.70)
- Odds: $2.70 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.39
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 41.8%
- Matchup: Adelaide vs Melbourne (Thursday, 7:40PM AEDT)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Crows and Demons. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Adelaide to win, available at $2.70 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 4.8% for this particular bet.
Geelong H2H vs Western Bulldogs ($1.93)
- Odds: $1.93 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.77
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 56.6%
- Matchup: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong (Saturday, 8:10PM AEDT)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Bulldogs and Cats. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Geelong to win at enticing odds of $1.93 through Betfair. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 4.8% for this particular wager.
Sydney H2H vs West Coast ($1.07)
- Odds: $1.07 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.02
- Edge: 4.7%
- Probability: 98.2%
- Match: West Coast vs Sydney (Saturday, 1:30PM AEDT)
Our next betting tip for Round 4 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Eagles and Swans. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Sydney to win, currently available at $1.07 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 4.7% edge for this particular bet.
GWS H2H vs Gold Coast ($1.40)
- Odds: $1.40 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.33
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 75.1%
- Matchup: Gold Coast vs. GWS (Sunday, 12:30PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Suns vs. Giants matchup. Our model has its eyes on GWS to win, coming in at $1.40 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 3.7% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 4, 2024
- Brisbane vs North Melbourne: Lions to win ($1.17 at Betfair, 5.8% edge)
- Adelaide vs Melbourne: Crows to win ($2.70 at Betfair, 4.8% edge)
- Western Bulldogs vs Geelong: Cats to win ($1.93 at Betfair, 4.8% edge)
- West Coast vs Sydney: Swans to win ($1.07 at Betfair, 4.7% edge)
- Gold Coast vs GWS: Giants to win ($1.40 at Betfair, 3.7% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 4 Games to Bet on This Week
- Adelaide vs Melbourne (Thursday, 7:40PM)
- Brisbane vs North Melbourne (Friday, 5:10PM)
- Port Adelaide vs Essendon (Friday, 8:10PM)
- West Coast vs Sydney (Saturday, 1:30PM)
- Fremantle vs Carlton (Saturday, 4:20PM)
- Western Bulldogs vs Geelong (Saturday, 8:10PM)
- Gold Coast vs GWS (Sunday, 12:30PM)
- Richmond vs St Kilda (Sunday, 3:20PM)
- Collingwood vs Hawthorn (Sunday, 5:10PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model thinks are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter AFL Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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