AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 5, 2024
Last updated: Apr 11, 2024, 2:31AM | Published: Apr 11, 2024, 2:02AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 5 of the 2024 AFL season have been released.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of each AFL Round 5 match to generate accurate probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters across the nation.
The odds below come from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to make the most of our best AFL bets.
Each one of the recommended bets for Round 5 of the AFL season come straight from the popular AFL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: Brownlow Predictor
AFL Betting Tips: Round 5, 2024
After crunching the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our independent computer model has determined the best footy bets for Round 5, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by GWS vs St Kilda and Melbourne vs Brisbane, with our advanced predictive model working around the clock to detect valuable edges.
GWS H2H vs St Kilda ($1.37)
- Odds: $1.37 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.26
- Edge: 6.1%
- Probability: 79.1%
- Match: GWS vs St Kilda (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Giants and Saints. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on GWS to win, currently offered at odds of $1.37 at Betfair. We have found a significant edge of 6.1% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Melbourne H2H vs Brisbane ($1.51)
- Odds: $1.51 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.39
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 71.9%
- Matchup: Melbourne vs Brisbane (Thursday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Demons and Lions. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Melbourne to win, available at $1.51 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 5.7% for this particular bet.
North Melbourne +55.5 vs Geelong ($2.00)
- Odds: $2.00 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.81
- Edge: 5.3%
- Probability: 55.3%
- Matchup: Geelong vs North Melbourne (Sunday, 1:00PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the game between the Cats and Kangaroos. The play here is a line bet, with North Melbourne +55.5 at enticing odds of $2.00 through Betfair. Our model has detected an advantageous edge of 5.3% for this particular wager.
Essendon +14.5 vs Western Bulldogs ($2.02)
- Odds: $2.02 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.83
- Edge: 5.1%
- Probability: 54.6%
- Match: Western Bulldogs vs Essendon (Friday, 7:40PM AEST)
Our next betting tip for Round 5 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Bulldogs and Bombers. The play here is a line bet on the Essendon +14.5, currently available at $2.02 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 5.1% edge for this particular bet.
Geelong vs North Melbourne Under 179.5 Points ($1.82)
- Odds: $1.82 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.68
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 59.7%
- Matchup: Geelong vs. North Melbourne (Sunday, 1:00PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Cats vs. Kangaroos game. Our model has its eyes on Under 179.5 Points, coming in at $1.82 odds. When comparing the best available over/under odds at Betfair to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 4.8% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 5, 2024
- GWS vs St Kilda: Giants to win ($1.37 at Betfair, 6.1% edge)
- Melbourne vs Brisbane: Demons to win ($1.51 at Betfair, 5.7% edge)
- Geelong vs North Melbourne: Kangaroos +55.5 ($2.00 at Betfair, 5.3% edge)
- Western Bulldogs vs Essendon: Bombers +14.5 ($2.02 at Betfair, 5.1% edge)
- Geelong vs North Melbourne: Under 179.5 Points ($1.82 at Betfair, 4.8% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 5 Games to Bet on This Week
- Melbourne vs Brisbane (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Western Bulldogs vs Essendon (Friday, 7:40PM)
- GWS vs St Kilda (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Carlton vs Adelaide (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Gold Coast vs Hawthorn (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Port Adelaide vs Fremantle (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Geelong vs North Melbourne (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- West Coast vs Richmond (Sunday, 4:00PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model thinks are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Smarter AFL Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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