AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 6, 2024
Apr 18, 2024, 2:31AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 6 of the 2024 AFL season have been unveiled.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of each AFL Round 6 match to generate accurate probabilities, which we then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters all over the nation.
The following odds are from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to take advantage of our best AFL bets.
Each one of our suggested bets for Round 6 of the AFL season come straight from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
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AFL Betting Tips: Round 6, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our famous computer model has determined the best footy bets for Round 6, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Collingwood vs Port Adelaide and North Melbourne vs Hawthorn, with our advanced predictive model working its magic to detect valuable edges.
Collingwood H2H vs Port Adelaide ($1.90)
- Odds: $1.90 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.74
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 57.5%
- Match: Collingwood vs Port Adelaide (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the matchup between the Magpies and Power. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Collingwood to win, currently offered at odds of $1.90 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 4.9% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
North Melbourne +16.5 vs Hawthorn ($2.04)
- Odds: $2.04 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.89
- Edge: 3.9%
- Probability: 52.9%
- Matchup: North Melbourne vs Hawthorn (Sunday, 4:00PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Kangaroos and Hawks. We recommend considering a wager on North Melbourne +16.5, available at $2.04 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 3.9% for this particular bet.
Sydney H2H vs Gold Coast ($1.37)
- Odds: $1.37 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.31
- Edge: 3.6%
- Probability: 76.6%
- Matchup: Sydney vs Gold Coast (Sunday, 1:00PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Swans and Suns. The play here is a head-to-head bet, with Sydney to win at enticing odds of $1.37 through Betfair. Our model has found an advantageous edge of 3.6% for this particular wager.
Fremantle H2H vs West Coast ($1.17)
- Odds: $1.17 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.13
- Edge: 3.0%
- Probability: 88.5%
- Match: West Coast vs Fremantle (Saturday, 8:10PM AEST)
Our next edge for Round 6 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Eagles and Dockers. The play here is a head-to-head bet on the Fremantle to win, currently available at $1.17 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 3.0% edge for this particular bet.
AFL Best Bets for Round 6, 2024
- Collingwood vs Port Adelaide: Magpies to win ($1.90 at Betfair, 4.9% edge)
- North Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Kangaroos +16.5 ($2.04 at Betfair, 3.9% edge)
- Sydney vs Gold Coast: Swans to win ($1.37 at Betfair, 3.6% edge)
- West Coast vs Fremantle: Dockers to win ($1.17 at Betfair, 3.0% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 6 Games to Bet on This Week
- St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Adelaide vs Essendon (Friday, 7:40PM)
- Collingwood vs Port Adelaide (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Carlton vs GWS (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Brisbane vs Geelong (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- West Coast vs Fremantle (Saturday, 8:10PM)
- Sydney vs Gold Coast (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- North Melbourne vs Hawthorn (Sunday, 4:00PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to present what our model believes are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because the odds are longer than we think they should be.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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