AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 7, 2024
Last updated: Apr 25, 2024, 2:30AM | Published: Apr 25, 2024, 2:01AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 7 of the 2024 AFL season have been released.
Led by its expert team of data analysts, Stats Insider has run 10,000 simulations of every AFL Round 7 match to produce reliable probabilities. These probabilities are then compared to the odds to find the best AFL bets for punters across the nation.
The odds below come from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to make the most of this week's best AFL bets.
Each one of our recommended bets for Round 7 of the AFL season come straight from the renowned AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
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AFL Betting Tips: Round 7, 2024
After crunching the numbers and running thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our independent computer model has found the best footy bets for Round 7, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Richmond vs Melbourne and GWS vs Brisbane, with our advanced predictive model carefully aiming to detect valuable edges.
Richmond +31.5 vs Melbourne ($1.98)
- Odds: $1.98 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.62
- Edge: 11.2%
- Probability: 61.7%
- Match: Richmond vs Melbourne (Wednesday, 7:25PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Tigers and Demons. We recommend placing a bet on Richmond +31.5, currently offered at odds of $1.98 at Betfair. We have found a significant edge of 11.2% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
GWS H2H vs Brisbane ($1.96)
- Odds: $1.96 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.64
- Edge: 9.7%
- Probability: 60.8%
- Matchup: GWS vs Brisbane (Thursday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Giants and Lions. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on GWS to win, available at $1.96 odds through Betfair. We have found a compelling edge of 9.7% for this particular bet.
Essendon +13.5 vs Collingwood ($2.06)
- Odds: $2.06 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.83
- Edge: 6.1%
- Probability: 54.7%
- Matchup: Essendon vs Collingwood (Thursday, 3:20PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Bombers and Magpies. The play here is a line bet, with Essendon +13.5 at enticing odds of $2.06 through Betfair. Our model has found an advantageous edge of 6.1% for this particular wager.
North Melbourne +28.5 vs Adelaide ($1.96)
- Odds: $1.96 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.78
- Edge: 5.2%
- Probability: 56.2%
- Match: North Melbourne vs Adelaide (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our next betting tip for Round 7 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Kangaroos and Crows. The play here is a line bet on the North Melbourne +28.5, currently available at $1.96 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 5.2% edge for this particular bet.
Gold Coast H2H vs West Coast ($1.18)
- Odds: $1.18 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.13
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 88.5%
- Matchup: Gold Coast vs. West Coast (Sunday, 1:00PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Suns vs. Eagles matchup. Our model has its eyes on Gold Coast to win, coming in at $1.18 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 3.7% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 7, 2024
- Richmond vs Melbourne: Tigers +31.5 ($1.98 at Betfair, 11.2% edge)
- GWS vs Brisbane: Giants to win ($1.96 at Betfair, 9.7% edge)
- Essendon vs Collingwood: Bombers +13.5 ($2.06 at Betfair, 6.1% edge)
- North Melbourne vs Adelaide: Kangaroos +28.5 ($1.96 at Betfair, 5.2% edge)
- Gold Coast vs West Coast: Suns to win ($1.18 at Betfair, 3.7% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 7 Games to Bet on This Week
- Richmond vs Melbourne (Wednesday, 7:25PM)
- Essendon vs Collingwood (Thursday, 3:20PM)
- GWS vs Brisbane (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Port Adelaide vs St Kilda (Friday, 7:40PM)
- North Melbourne vs Adelaide (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Geelong vs Carlton (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Gold Coast vs West Coast (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- Hawthorn vs Sydney (Sunday, 4:00PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model believes are the correct odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we recommend a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed Sports Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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