AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 8, 2024
May 2, 2024, 2:32AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 8 of the 2024 AFL season have been released.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our reliable computer model to simulate every AFL Round 8 match 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters all over the country.
The following odds come from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair now to take advantage of this week's best AFL bets.
Each one of our recommended bets for Round 8 of the AFL season come directly from the popular AFL Value Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: Brownlow Predictor
AFL Betting Tips: Round 8, 2024
After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our independent computer model has found the best footy bets for you in Round 8, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips feature Sydney vs GWS and Richmond vs Fremantle, with our advanced predictive model working around the clock to detect valuable edges.
Sydney vs GWS Over 147.5 Points ($1.65)
- Odds: $1.65 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.14
- Edge: 27.2%
- Probability: 87.8%
- Match: Sydney vs GWS (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the match between the Swans and Giants. We recommend placing an over/under bet on Over 147.5 Points, currently offered at odds of $1.65 at Betfair. We have found a significant edge of 27.2% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Richmond vs Fremantle Over 163.5 Points ($1.81)
- Odds: $1.81 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.45
- Edge: 14.0%
- Probability: 69.2%
- Matchup: Richmond vs Fremantle (Sunday, 1:00PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Tigers and Dockers. We recommend considering an over/under wager on Over 163.5 Points, available at $1.81 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 14.0% for this particular bet.
Melbourne vs Geelong Over 164.5 Points ($1.81)
- Odds: $1.81 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.50
- Edge: 11.5%
- Probability: 66.8%
- Matchup: Melbourne vs Geelong (Saturday, 7:30PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Demons and Cats. The play here is an over/under bet, with Over 164.5 Points at enticing odds of $1.81 through Betfair. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 11.5% for this particular wager.
Gold Coast +12.5 vs Brisbane ($2.04)
- Odds: $2.04 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.69
- Edge: 10.2%
- Probability: 59.2%
- Match: Brisbane vs Gold Coast (Sunday, 7:10PM AEST)
Our next bet for Round 8 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Lions and Suns. The play here is a line bet on the Gold Coast +12.5, currently available at $2.04 odds through Betfair. Our model has detected a noteworthy 10.2% edge for this particular bet.
Richmond +11.5 vs Fremantle ($2.04)
- Odds: $2.04 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.78
- Edge: 7.2%
- Probability: 56.2%
- Matchup: Richmond vs. Fremantle (Sunday, 1:00PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Tigers vs. Dockers matchup. Our model has its eyes on Richmond +11.5, coming in at $2.04 odds. When comparing the best available line odds at Betfair to our probabilities, we're talking about a tasty 7.2% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 8, 2024
- Sydney vs GWS: Over 147.5 Points ($1.65 at Betfair, 27.2% edge)
- Richmond vs Fremantle: Over 163.5 Points ($1.81 at Betfair, 14.0% edge)
- Melbourne vs Geelong: Over 164.5 Points ($1.81 at Betfair, 11.5% edge)
- Brisbane vs Gold Coast: Suns +12.5 ($2.04 at Betfair, 10.2% edge)
- Richmond vs Fremantle: Tigers +11.5 ($2.04 at Betfair, 7.2% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 8 Games to Bet on This Week
- Adelaide vs Port Adelaide (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Carlton vs Collingwood (Friday, 7:40PM)
- Sydney vs GWS (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- St Kilda vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Melbourne vs Geelong (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- West Coast vs Essendon (Saturday, 8:10PM)
- Richmond vs Fremantle (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn (Sunday, 4:00PM)
- Brisbane vs Gold Coast (Sunday, 7:10PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we will say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is equivalent to fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be recommended at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed AFL Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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