AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Round 9, 2024
Last updated: May 9, 2024, 2:32AM | Published: May 9, 2024, 2:02AM
The best AFL betting tips for Round 9 of the 2024 AFL season have been revealed.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our independent computer model to simulate each AFL Round 9 game 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters across the nation.
The odds below originate from the Betfair Exchange. Join Betfair today to make the most of our best AFL bets.
All of the recommended bets for Round 9 of the AFL season come directly from the popular AFL Best Bets page on Stats Insider.
MORE: Brownlow Predictor
AFL Betting Tips: Round 9, 2024
After diving deep into the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL games, our leading computer model has determined the best footy bets for Round 9, 2024.
This week's AFL betting tips are led by Hawthorn vs St Kilda and Adelaide vs Brisbane, with our advanced predictive model working its magic to detect valuable edges.
Hawthorn H2H vs St Kilda ($2.60)
- Odds: $2.60 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.04
- Edge: 10.6%
- Probability: 49%
- Match: Hawthorn vs St Kilda (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Hawks and Saints. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on Hawthorn to win, currently offered at odds of $2.60 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 10.6% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
MORE: AFL Value Bets Today
Adelaide H2H vs Brisbane ($1.73)
- Odds: $1.73 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.52
- Edge: 8.0%
- Probability: 65.8%
- Matchup: Adelaide vs Brisbane (Sunday, 4:00PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the matchup featuring the Crows and Lions. We recommend considering a head-to-head wager on Adelaide to win, available at $1.73 odds through Betfair. We have detected a compelling edge of 8.0% for this particular bet.
Adelaide 0 vs Brisbane ($2.04)
- Odds: $2.04 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.78
- Edge: 7.2%
- Probability: 56.2%
- Matchup: Adelaide vs Brisbane (Sunday, 4:00PM AEST)
Another top tip for this week's footy action comes from the matchup between the Crows and Lions. The play here is a line bet, with Adelaide 0 at enticing odds of $2.04 through Betfair. Our model has identified an advantageous edge of 7.2% for this particular wager.
North Melbourne +43.5 vs Gold Coast ($2.04)
- Odds: $2.04 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.79
- Edge: 7.0%
- Probability: 56%
- Match: Gold Coast vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 7:30PM AEST)
Our next bet for Round 9 of the AFL season stems from the game between the Suns and Kangaroos. The play here is a line bet on the North Melbourne +43.5, currently available at $2.04 odds through Betfair. Our model has found a noteworthy 7.0% edge for this particular bet.
Essendon H2H vs GWS ($2.46)
- Odds: $2.46 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.11
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 47.3%
- Matchup: Essendon vs. GWS (Saturday, 4:35PM AEST)
Next up, we're looking at the Bombers vs. Giants game. Our model has its eyes on Essendon to win, coming in at $2.46 odds. When comparing the best available head-to-head odds at Betfair to our probabilities, punters are getting a tasty 6.7% edge here.
AFL Best Bets for Round 9, 2024
- Hawthorn vs St Kilda: Hawks to win ($2.60 at Betfair, 10.6% edge)
- Adelaide vs Brisbane: Crows to win ($1.73 at Betfair, 8.0% edge)
- Adelaide vs Brisbane: Crows -6.5 ($2.04 at Betfair, 7.2% edge)
- Gold Coast vs North Melbourne: Kangaroos +43.5 ($2.04 at Betfair, 7.0% edge)
- Essendon vs GWS: Bombers to win ($2.46 at Betfair, 6.7% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Round 9 Games to Bet on This Week
- Carlton vs Melbourne (Thursday, 7:30PM)
- Geelong vs Port Adelaide (Friday, 7:10PM)
- Fremantle vs Sydney (Friday, 8:20PM)
- Hawthorn vs St Kilda (Saturday, 1:45PM)
- Essendon vs GWS (Saturday, 4:35PM)
- Richmond vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Gold Coast vs North Melbourne (Saturday, 7:30PM)
- Collingwood vs West Coast (Sunday, 1:00PM)
- Adelaide vs Brisbane (Sunday, 4:00PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model believes are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed Sports Betting Decisions
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If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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