AFL Betting Tips and Odds for Semi-Finals, 2023
Last updated: Sep 15, 2023, 6:12AM | Published: Sep 14, 2023, 10:35AMThe best AFL betting tips for Semi-Finals week of the 2023 AFL season have been released.
Led by Stats Insider's expert team of data analysts, we have used our powerful computer model to simulate each AFL match 10,000 times and find the best AFL bets for punters all over the country.
The following odds come from the Betfair Exchange. Click on the link to join Betfair now and make the most of our best AFL bets.
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AFL Betting Tips: Semi-Finals, 2023
After crunching the numbers and conducting thousands of simulations of this week's AFL matches, our independent computer model has determined the best footy bet for you in Semi-Finals, 2023.
With just two games on the weekend, our model has found one bet in each game.
GWS H2H vs Port Adelaide ($2.42)
- Odds: $2.42 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $2.32
- Edge: 2%
- Probability: 41.2%
- Matchup: Port Adelaide vs GWS (Saturday, 7:40PM AEST)
Our model has pinpointed the best AFL bet to make this week, focusing on the game between the Power and Giants. We recommend placing a head-to-head bet on GWS to win, currently offered at odds of $2.42 at Betfair. We have detected a significant edge of 2% for this particular wager, which makes it our AFL bet of the round.
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Melbourne H2H vs Carlton ($1.73)
- Odds: $1.73 via Betfair
- Fair Odds: $1.70
- Edge: 1%
- Probability: 58.8%
- Match: Melbourne vs Carlton (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
Our model has uncovered another standout AFL bet, specifically in the game featuring the Demons and Blues. We recommend considering a wager on Melbourne to win, available at $1.73 odds through Betfair. Our fair odds are $1.70 for this particular bet.
AFL Best Bets for 2023 Semi-Finals
- Port Adelaide vs GWS: Giants to win ($2.42 at Betfair, 2% edge)
- Melbourne vs Carlton: Demons to win ($1.73 at Betfair, 1% edge)
MORE: Every AFL Finals Game Simulated 10,000 Times
AFL Games to Bet on This Week
- Carlton vs Melbourne (Friday, 7:50PM)
- Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide (Saturday, 7:40PM)
All times listed are Australian Eastern Time.
What Is an Edge in Betting?
The edge at Stats Insider is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that our predictive analytics model believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the bookies do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
What Are Fair Odds in Betting?
Stats Insider uses "fair odds" to show what our model thinks are the right odds for a certain bet.
For example, if a team wins 6,520 out of 10,000 simulated games, we'll say they have a 65.2% chance of winning, which is the same as fair odds of $1.53. If you can bet on the team at odds of $2.00 with a bookmaker, this would be suggested at the time because we think the odds should be shorter.
Basically, fair odds make it easier to understand why we suggest a certain bet because they are easy to compare to bookie odds.
Make Informed Sports Betting Decisions
At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.
If you decide to use our AFL tips and predictions for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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