AFL Betting Trends, Players and Odds to Watch - Finals Week 1, 2023

Last updated: Sep 5, 2023, 11:06AM | Published: Sep 5, 2023, 7:58AM

It's time for finals action in the AFL, and with these player betting trends, you can gain an advantage when betting on this week's games.

As Australia's leading provider of AFL predictions and betting advice, Stats Insider is here to help you with the best AFL betting trends for all the action across the first week of finals.

Our AFL betting trends show which players are hitting a given line more frequently than their odds would suggest, with goal kicker and disposal markets included below.

Players such as Ollie Wines, Jed McEntee, and Sam Powell-Pepper are among those who appear in this week's highlighted trends from finals action.

AFL Betting Trends: Finals Week 1, 2023

Use the betting trends featured below, along with our AFL predictions, to build the ultimate footy multi for this weekend.

Recent Disposal Trends

The following trends show that the AFL players who have recently had a certain number of disposals have done so more often than their odds for the first week of finals would suggest.

We highly recommend betting on AFL disposal and goal markets at Betfair, which has a huge range of betting options to choose from.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda) has had 20+ disposals in 16 of his last 17 matches (94% of the time). You can bet on him to have 20+ again at $1.23 (81% implied probability).
Stephen Coniglio (GWS Giants) has had 25+ disposals in 17 of his last 20 matches (85%). You can bet on him to have 25+ again at $1.35 (74%).
Josh Kelly (GWS Giants) has had 25+ disposals in 15 of his last 19 matches (79%). You can bet on him to have 25+ again at $1.43 (70%).
Brad Crouch (St Kilda) has had 25+ disposals in 13 of his last 15 matches (87%). You can bet on him to have 25+ again at $1.39 (72%).
Tim Membrey (St Kilda) has had 15+ disposals in 6 of his last 18 matches (33%). You can bet on him to have 15+ again at $4.60 (22%).
Dane Rampe (Sydney) has had 15+ disposals in 12 of his last 17 matches (71%). You can bet on him to have 15+ again at $1.69 (59%).
Sam Docherty (Carlton) has had 25+ disposals in 13 of his last 15 matches (87%). You can bet on him to have 25+ again at $1.52 (66%).
Blake Acres (Carlton) has had 20+ disposals in 17 of his last 20 matches (85%). You can bet on him to have 20+ again at $1.35 (74%).
Lachie Hunter (Melbourne) has had 20+ disposals in 17 of his last 20 matches (85%). You can bet on him to have 20+ again at $1.34 (75%).
Jake Bowey (Melbourne) has had 15+ disposals in 16 of his last 20 matches (80%). You can bet on him to have 15+ again at $1.45 (69%).

Opponent Disposal Trends

These trends show the AFL players who have had a certain number of disposals in recent games against their finals opponent, which is more often than their odds for this week would suggest.

Sam Powell-Pepper (Port Adelaide) has had 15+ disposals in 9 of his last 9 matches against Brisbane (100% of the time). You can bet on him to have 15+ against them again at $2.00 (50% implied probability).
Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) has had 25+ disposals in 7 of his last 10 matches against Brisbane (70%). You can bet on him to have 25+ against them again at $2.45 (41%).
Jake Lloyd (Sydney) has had 25+ disposals in 7 of his last 10 matches against Carlton (70%). You can bet on him to have 25+ against them again at $2.20 (45%).
Isaac Heeney (Sydney) has had 20+ disposals in 6 of his last 10 matches against Carlton (60%). You can bet on him to have 20+ against them again at $3.30 (30%).
Lachie Hunter (Melbourne) has had 25+ disposals in 8 of his last 9 matches against Collingwood (89%). You can bet on him to have 25+ against them again at $2.35 (43%).
Christian Salem (Melbourne) has had 20+ disposals in 9 of his last 10 matches against Collingwood (90%). You can bet on him to have 20+ against them again at $1.71 (58%).
Lachie Neale (Brisbane) has had 30+ disposals in 7 of his last 9 matches against Port Adelaide (78%). You can bet on him to have 30+ against them again at $2.03 (49%).
Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) has had 20+ disposals in 4 of his last 10 matches against Brisbane (40%). You can bet on him to have 20+ against them again at $6.00 (17%).
Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood) has had 20+ disposals in 8 of his last 9 matches against Melbourne (89%). You can bet on him to have 20+ against them again at $1.49 (67%).
Taylor Adams (Collingwood) has had 20+ disposals in 8 of his last 8 matches against Melbourne (100%). You can bet on him to have 20+ against them again at $1.71 (58%).

Recent Goal Kicking Trends

The following trends show the AFL players who have recently kicked a certain number of goals more often than their odds for the first week of finals would suggest.

Jed McEntee (Port Adelaide) has kicked 1+ goals in 12 of his last 20 matches (60% of the time). You can bet on him to kick 1+ again at $2.12 (47% implied probability).
Dan Butler (St Kilda) has kicked 2+ goals in 10 of his last 18 matches (56%). You can bet on him to kick 2+ again at $2.50 (40%).
Toby Greene (GWS Giants) has kicked 2+ goals in 18 of his last 20 matches (90%). You can bet on him to kick 2+ again at $1.33 (75%).
Jesse Motlop (Carlton) has kicked 2+ goals in 10 of his last 19 matches (53%). You can bet on him to kick 2+ again at $2.55 (39%).
Tom Papley (Sydney) has kicked 1+ goals in 19 of his last 20 matches (95%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ again at $1.19 (84%).
Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne) has kicked 2+ goals in 16 of his last 20 matches (80%). You can bet on him to kick 2+ again at $1.56 (64%).
Jack Viney (Melbourne) has kicked 1+ goals in 8 of his last 20 matches (40%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ again at $3.70 (27%).
Kade Chandler (Melbourne) has kicked 3+ goals in 5 of his last 20 matches (25%). You can bet on him to kick 3+ again at $7.75 (13%).
Brody Mihocek (Collingwood) has kicked 3+ goals in 9 of his last 20 matches (45%). You can bet on him to kick 3+ again at $3.30 (30%).
Sam Powell-Pepper (Port Adelaide) has kicked 2+ goals in 8 of his last 17 matches (47%). You can bet on him to kick 2+ again at $3.05 (33%).

Opponent Goal Kicking Trends

These trends show the AFL players who have kicked a certain number of goals in recent games against their finals opponent, which is more often than their odds for this week would suggest.

Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) has kicked 1+ goals in 5 of his last 9 matches against Brisbane (56% of the time). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $3.60 (28% implied probability).
Dayne Zorko (Brisbane) has kicked 1+ goals in 7 of his last 9 matches against Port Adelaide (78%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $2.20 (45%).
Will Hayward (Sydney) has kicked 1+ goals in 8 of his last 9 matches against Carlton (89%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $1.64 (61%).
Luke Parker (Sydney) has kicked 1+ goals in 7 of his last 10 matches against Carlton (70%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $3.25 (31%).
Ed Langdon (Melbourne) has kicked 1+ goals in 5 of his last 9 matches against Collingwood (56%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $3.70 (27%).
Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane) has kicked 1+ goals in 7 of his last 7 matches against Port Adelaide (100%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $1.25 (80%).
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) has kicked 1+ goals in 5 of his last 8 matches against Sydney (62%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $2.30 (43%).
Mason Cox (Collingwood) has kicked 1+ goals in 7 of his last 7 matches against Melbourne (100%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $1.85 (54%).
Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood) has kicked 1+ goals in 5 of his last 10 matches against Melbourne (50%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $3.60 (28%).
Oscar McInerney (Brisbane) has kicked 1+ goals in 4 of his last 6 matches against Port Adelaide (67%). You can bet on him to kick 1+ against them again at $3.15 (32%).

AFL Finals Games to Bet On

Collingwood vs Melbourne (Thursday, 7:20pm)
Carlton vs Sydney (Friday, 7:50pm)
St Kilda vs GWS (Saturday, 3:20pm)
Brisbane vs Port Adelaide (Saturday, 7:25pm)

All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).

Related: AFL Predictions Today

All of the AFL trends in this article are based on past performance and do not necessarily predict future performance.

All odds listed are correct at the time of publication from selected bookmakers and are subject to change.

Given that quarters were shorter in 2020, all player data from that year has been altered to reflect the full length of a game.

If you want to use our AFL betting trends to place bets, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

More on the AFL

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Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.