AFL Brownlow Medal Multi - Most Team Votes 2022
Last updated: Sep 17, 2022, 10:49AM | Published: Sep 16, 2022, 4:27AM
The 2022 Brownlow Medal is almost here, so it's time to go into the Stats Insider data to find where the value lies in betting on a most team votes Brownlow multi.
After simulating the count 10,000 times, our Brownlow predictor has determined which players are most likely to lead each team in votes, with a handful presenting value against BlueBet's odds.
For each of the 18 teams in the AFL, our model has determined the probability of every player finishing with the most votes for their team, which we translate into what we call 'fair odds'.
Fair odds basically means that if you find anything higher, you should bet it. An example of this is our first tip, with Jack Crisp's fair odds to lead Collingwood's votes at $1.72, with BlueBet offering $2.50.
So, let's take a look the players we are putting into an AFL Brownlow multi to lead their team in votes in the Brownlow Medal 2022.
RELATED: Brownlow Medal Predictor 2022
Brownlow Medal Most Team Votes 2022
Collingwood - Jack Crisp ($2.50)
In one of the team counts that looks the tightest, our model has Jack Crisp leading Collingwood 64.5% of the time, equating to fair odds of $1.72.
Crisp's average total votes across our 10,000 simulations is 11.1, with Nick Daicos next best at 9.3 projected votes.
Geelong - Jeremy Cameron ($1.14)
The only forward to feature in this multi, Jeremy Cameron appears to be a safe bet to lead Geelong in votes this season.
Cameron is projected to tally 17.6 votes, with Cam Guthrie's 10.7 the next highest total for the minor premiers.
Leading Geelong's count in 94.9% of simulations, our fair odds for Cameron are $1.07, with BlueBet offering $1.14.
GWS - Josh Kelly ($1.75)
Another team that the bookies are projecting as a tight battle is that of the GWS Giants, but our model suggests Josh Kelly is the player most likely to lead their votes.
Our projections have Kelly as a 73% chance of polling the most votes for GWS, with Stephen Coniglio next at 35.7%.
You can get $1.75 for this leg at BlueBet, with our fair odds at $1.48.
Melbourne - Clayton Oliver ($1.40)
The player we have as the second most likely to win the Brownlow overall, Clayton Oliver is also presenting some nice value to lead Melbourne's votes.
Our fair odds for Oliver to poll the most votes for the Demons are $1.34 (77.7% probability), with BlueBet offering $1.40.
If you're wondering how close this one will be, our projections have Oliver on 24.4 votes ahead of Christian Petracca at 20.9.
Port Adelaide - Connor Rozee ($1.14)
Our model has Connor Rozee leading the way for Port Adelaide, with the young star projected to finish around six votes ahead of 2021 Brownlow medallist Ollie Wines.
Rozee has a 92% chance of topping Port's votes, equating to fair odds of $1.09. With BlueBet offering $1.14, we're getting a nice edge on a bet with a probability above 90%.
Brownlow Medal Multi
With all of these players projected as over a 50% chance of leading their teams' votes, why not take them in a multi to maximise your potential winnings?
- Jack Crisp to lead Collingwood in votes ($2.50)
- Jeremy Cameron to lead Geelong in votes ($1.14)
- Josh Kelly to lead GWS in votes ($1.75)
- Clayton Oliver to lead Melbourne in votes ($1.40)
- Connor Rozee to lead Port Adelaide in votes ($1.14)
- Multi odds via BlueBet = $8.03
DOWNLOAD: Every team's projected Brownlow Medal leading vote-getter
