AFL Expert Tips and Predictions for Round 1, 2025
Mar 12, 2025, 11:23PM
Looking for an advantage when it comes to your AFL tips for Round 1? We have AFL Round 1 tips 2025 for every match this week.
Get an edge in your AFL tipping leagues with the help of our data-driven AFL expert tips for Round 1 of the 2025 AFL season, which come from simulating each AFL match 10,000 times.
AFL Round 1 Expert Tips 2025
Round 1 of the AFL season features nine games, starting with Richmond vs Carlton on Thursday and ending with West Coast vs Gold Coast on Sunday.
These AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by trusted data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 1 2025 a must-read resource for AFL tipsters of every level.
AFL Tips Round 1 2025: Who Will Win
Listed below are our predictions for each AFL game in Round 1, 2025, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Richmond vs Carlton
Round 1 AFL action kicks off with Richmond taking on Carlton at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday. Our predictive analytics model projects Carlton as having a 96% chance of winning, while Richmond has a 4% projected win chance.
Richmond vs Carlton is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, March 13 at 7:30pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).
Hawthorn vs Essendon
In Friday night's game between Hawthorn and Essendon, the Hawks are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting a 79% chance for Hawthorn. On the other hand, Essendon has a 21% chance of winning.
Hawthorn vs Essendon is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, March 14 at 7:40pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2025 Tips
Geelong vs Fremantle
We are tipping Geelong to win its game against Fremantle this week, with our powerful AFL model projecting a 73% win probability for the Cats. Fremantle has a 27% chance of winning.
Geelong vs Fremantle is at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, March 15 at 1:20pm AEDT.
Sydney vs Brisbane
With a win probability of 52%, our tip for this game is Brisbane, while its opponent, Sydney, has a projected win chance of 48%.
Sydney vs Brisbane is at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Saturday, March 15 at 4:15pm AEDT.
More: AFL Player Ratings
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
The Western Bulldogs have an 84% chance of winning on Saturday night, compared to North Melbourne's 16% chance of victory. This makes the Bulldogs the team to tip at Marvel Stadium.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, March 15 at 7:35pm AEDT.
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide
Collingwood is favoured to win here, with our predictive analytics model giving them a 57% chance, while Port Adelaide enters the weekend with a 43% chance of winning at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, March 15 at 7:35pm AEDT.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
Adelaide vs St Kilda
According to our predictive analytics model, Adelaide is the team to beat in this game, with the Crows' win probability at 73%. St Kilda, on the other hand, has a 27% chance of winning.
Adelaide vs St Kilda is at Adelaide Oval on Sunday, March 16 at 12:35pm AEDT.
Melbourne vs GWS
We are tipping the Giants in this match, with GWS given a 65% chance of winning, while Melbourne has a 35% chance of an upset win.
Melbourne vs GWS is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, March 16 at 3:20pm AEDT.
West Coast vs Gold Coast
The last game of Round 1 sees West Coast take on Gold Coast at Optus Stadium.
We are tipping Gold Coast with a win probability of 74%, while West Coast is projected to have a win chance of 26%.
West Coast vs Gold Coast is at Optus Stadium on Sunday, March 16 at 6:10pm AEDT.
AFL Tipping Round 1 2025: Who to Tip
- Carlton
- Hawthorn
- Geelong
- Brisbane
- Bulldogs
- Collingwood
- Adelaide
- GWS
- Gold Coast
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Round 1 Games to Tip On
- Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers
- Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers
- Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions
- Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
- Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power
- Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints
- Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants
- West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns
The AFL footy tips Round 1 2025 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2025 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and reliable, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
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