AFL Expert Tips for Round 1, 2024
Last updated: Mar 13, 2024, 11:24AM | Published: Mar 13, 2024, 11:23AM
Searching for help with your AFL tips for Round 1? We have AFL Round 1 tips 2024 for every game this week.
Get an edge in AFL tipping leagues thanks to our data-driven AFL expert tips for Round 1 of the 2024 AFL season, the result of simulating each AFL match-up 10,000 times.
AFL Round 1 Tips and Predictions 2024
Footy fans have nine games to look forward to this week, starting with Carlton vs Richmond on Thursday and finishing with Fremantle vs Brisbane on Sunday.
These AFL footy tips and predictions are powered by independent data and analytics, making our AFL tips Round 1 2024 a go-to resource for AFL tipsters.
Related: Predictions for Every AFL Game
AFL Tips Round 1 2024: Who Will Win
Detailed below are our predictions for every AFL game in Round 1, based on 10,000 simulations per match.
Carlton vs Richmond
Round 1 AFL action kicks off with Carlton taking on Richmond at Marvel Stadium on Thursday night. Our model projects Carlton as having a 58% chance of winning, while Richmond has a 42% win probability.
Carlton vs Richmond is at Marvel Stadium on Thursday, March 14 at 7:30pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).
Collingwood vs Sydney
In Friday night's game between Collingwood and Sydney, the Magpies are the more likely winners, with our predictive model projecting a 65% chance for Collingwood. On the other hand, Sydney has a 35% chance of pulling off an upset win.
Collingwood vs Sydney is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, March 15 at 7:40pm.
More: AFL Premiership 2024 Tips
Essendon vs Hawthorn
We are tipping Hawthorn to win its game against Essendon this week, with our model projecting a 58% win probability for the Hawks. Essendon has a 42% chance of winning at Marvel Stadium.
Essendon vs Hawthorn is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, March 16 at 1:45pm AEDT.
GWS vs North Melbourne
With a win probability of 97% on Saturday afternoon, our tip for this game is GWS, while its opponent, North Melbourne, has a low projected win chance of 3%.
Looking at the head-to-head betting odds, Betfair currently has GWS at $1.09, with North Melbourne available at $11.00.
GWS vs North Melbourne is at Giants Stadium on Saturday, March 16 at 4:35pm AEDT.
More: AFL Player Ratings
Geelong vs St Kilda
The Cats have a 65% chance of winning on Saturday night, compared to St Kilda's 35% chance of victory. This makes Geelong the team to tip at GMHBA Stadium.
Geelong vs St Kilda is at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, March 16 at 7:30pm AEDT.
Gold Coast vs Adelaide
Metricon Stadium is set to host Gold Coast and Adelaide this Saturday, with our model struggling to split the two teams. In saying that, we are tipping Adelaide to win due to a slight edge in the probabilities.
Gold Coast vs Adelaide is at Metricon Stadium on Saturday, March 16 at 8:10pm AEDT.
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
According to our predictive analytics model, Melbourne is the team to beat in this game, with the Demons' win probability at 59%. The Western Bulldogs, on the other hand, have a 41% chance of winning.
If you want to bet on the match, Betfair has the Demons at $1.67 and the Bulldogs at $2.40.
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, March 17 at 1:00pm AEDT.
More: AFL Strength of Schedule
Port Adelaide vs West Coast
We are tipping the Power in this match, with Port Adelaide given a 97% chance of winning, while West Coast has a 3% win probability.
Port Adelaide vs West Coast is at Adelaide Oval on Sunday, March 17 at 4:00pm AEDT.
Fremantle vs Brisbane
The last game of Round 1 sees Fremantle take on Brisbane at Optus Stadium. The latest Betfair odds have the Dockers at $2.68 and the Lions at $1.58.
We are tipping Fremantle with a win probability of 55%, while Brisbane is projected to have a win chance of 45%.
Fremantle vs Brisbane is at Optus Stadium on Sunday, March 17 at 6:50pm AEDT.
AFL Tipping Round 1 2024: Who to Tip
- Carlton
- Collingwood
- Hawthorn
- GWS
- Geelong
- Adelaide
- Melbourne
- Port Adelaide
- Fremantle
AFL Round 1 Games to Tip On
- Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
- Collingwood Magpies vs Sydney Swans
- Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks
- GWS Giants vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
- Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints
- Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows
- Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs
- Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles
- Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions
The AFL footy tips Round 1 2024 and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stats Insider is renowned in Australia for providing expert AFL tips. Our AFL expert tips 2024 are generated by an in-house team of skilled data scientists and analysts who use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to simulate each game 10,000 times and determine the most likely outcomes. This meticulous approach ensures our predictions are accurate and reliable, helping you make informed decisions when it comes to AFL tipping.
If you decide to use our footy tips for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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