AFL Expert Tips for Round 17, 2022

Last updated: Jul 14, 2022, 4:03AM | Published: Jul 7, 2022, 3:48AM

Another week of footy has arrived and our model is here to help with your AFL tips for Round 17.

Here a week late? Check out our AFL expert tips for Round 18.

AFL tipping is as important as ever this weekend, making it essential to use Stats Insider's data-driven AFL predictions for Round 17 of the 2022 AFL season.

We have AFL footy tips for every Round 17 game, just as we do each week, based on 10,000 simulations of every AFL game.

If you're looking for a competitive advantage in your tipping competition, the best AFL expert tips are available at Australia's top sports data site, Stats Insider.

For reference, in a challenging week for AFL tipsters, our Round 16 AFL tips 2022 article correctly tipped six out of nine games.

RELATED: Tips for Every AFL Game

AFL Tips Round 17

Geelong vs Melbourne

Second-placed Geelong hosts ladder-leader Melbourne to open the round, and our model leans slightly in favour of the away team. Melbourne's win probability is 51%, while Geelong has a 49% chance of winning its seventh straight game.

Geelong vs Melbourne is at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday, July 7 at 7:20pm AEST.

Sydney vs Western Bulldogs

In a game between two teams coming off poor losses, Sydney has a win probability of 62%, which makes the Swans our tip against the Western Bulldogs, who have a 38% chance of winning.

Sydney vs Western Bulldogs is at the SGC on Friday, July 8 at 7:50pm AEST.

Collingwood vs North Melbourne

In what is shaping up to be the most lopsided game in AFL Round 17, Collingwood's win probability is 97%, with North Melbourne having a 3% chance of causing an upset.

Collingwood vs North Melbourne is at the MCG on Saturday, July 9 at 1:45pm AEST.

Gold Coast vs Richmond

This week, the Tigers travel to Queensland as slight underdogs, according to our model, with Gold Coast given a 51% chance of winning. Richmond has a win probability of 49%.

Gold Coast vs Richmond is at Metricon Stadium on Saturday, July 9 at 4:35pm AEST.

St Kilda vs Fremantle

St Kilda has a 51% chance of winning again, after the Saints defeated Carlton last week, while Fremantle has a 49% win probability.

St Kilda vs Fremantle is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, July 9 at 7:25pm AEST.

Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants

We're tipping the home team in this match, with Port Adelaide given a 65% chance of winning, while the GWS Giants have a 35% win probability.

Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, July 9 at 7:30pm AEST.

Brisbane vs Essendon

Brisbane is one of the round's heaviest AFL favourites with an 87% chance of winning. On the other hand, Essendon is just a 13% chance of pulling off a second straight win as the underdog.

RELATED: Why Brisbane Should Be Worried

Brisbane vs Essendon is at the Gabba on Sunday, July 10 at 1:10pm AEST.

Hawthorn vs Adelaide

In the Sunday mid-afternoon AFL clash, Hawthorn is projected as a 73% chance of winning, while Adelaide has a 27% win probability.

Hawthorn vs Adelaide is at the MCG on Sunday, July 10 at 3:20pm AEST.

West Coast vs Carlton

In the final game of Round 17, Carlton has a win probability of 72%, while West Coast has a 28% chance of winning.

West Coast vs Carlton is at Optus Stadium on Sunday, July 10 at 4:40pm AEST.

Expert AFL Tips 2022 Round 17

Melbourne
Sydney
Collingwood
Gold Coast
St Kilda
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Carlton

All AFL tips this week and probabilities in this article are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.