If nothing else, AFL Semi Final weekend restored faith across the country that competitive September football still exists.

Compared with last week’s snooze-fest, the weekend’s matches made for gripping, elimination drama, with both games going down to the wire.

Ultimately, Geelong and the GWS Giants prevailed, setting up blockbuster Preliminary Finals against Richmond and Collingwood respectively.

With the AFL ‘Final Four’ locked in, we have updated our futures projections while we’re also looking at some of the stats and trends underpinning the remaining combatants.

RICHMOND

30.7% TO WIN THE AFL PREMIERSHIP 

While the Tigers put their feet up over the weekend, the Cats and Eagles played out a see-sawing slugfest which has ended up costing Geelong’s Tom Hawkins a place in the Preliminary Final.

While Richmond would have enjoyed their enemies beating the brains out of each other (while not shedding any tears regarding Hawkins’ suspension) they’ll also feel confident they’ve the competition’s most in-form team.  

The Tiger’s 10-game winning streak helped secure it’s third consecutive Preliminary Final berth, with their trademark ferocity at the ball once again propelling them to flag favouritism.

During their streak, Richmond has very much rediscovered the form which fuelled its 2017 Premiership, as well it’s barnstorming 2018 home and away season.

With a per game average tackle differential of +7 over the course of 2019, the Tigers are easily the competition’s premier tackling team, while their tackling pressure inside 50 has also ratcheted up in recent weeks, compiling an AFL Finals high 18 tackles inside 50 during it's Qualifying Final win over Brisbane, despite losing the inside 50 count by ten.

The Tigers were expected to struggle when they lost five-time All Australian full back Alex Rance in the opening round of the season, however, they’ve been able to reconfigure their defence while returning to its stingy ways.

During the Tigers' win streak, they’ve conceded a measly 63.1 points per game with their veteran full back Dylan Grimes finally being rewarded with an All-Australian gong of his own.

The Tigers are an exceptionally well-drilled unit who employ a gameplan tailor-made for AFL Finals football and which will make them enormously hard to beat over the next couple of weeks.

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COLLINGWOOD

27.7% TO WIN THE AFL PREMIERSHIP 

Like Richmond, the Pies enjoyed their weekend off, watching on as the Giants and Lions terrorised each other in a gruelling matchup.

Collingwood, like Richmond, benefited even further from the affair with one of the Giants very best players, Toby Greene, also incurring a suspension.

In recent weeks, the Magpies have reignited their AFL Premiership hopes, doubling down on the type of finals intensity which served them so well during last year’s march to the Grand Final.

As well as being of the league’s most tenacious squads, ranked third in the league for per game, average contested possession differential at +6.0, Collingwood has added a more 'outside' dimension in 2019, with their uncontested differential number now at +27.7, up from the +21 and +18.1 figures they posted over the previous two seasons.

And it was the Pies willingness to work inside and out in their Qualifying Final win against Geelong, winning the tackle count with a massive 97-75 edge, while also blitzing the Cats in uncontested possession 242-166.

All season, Collingwood have prospered off the back of their star ruckman - and legitimate Brownlow Medal hopeful- Brodie Grundy, who has been sensational in 2019.  

Grundy obliterated the Cats in the QF, while he would very much like his chances of doing similar against the Giants’ veteran, Shane Mumford, this Saturday.

While the Pies lost their only meeting with GWS earlier in the season, the Giants simply had no answer for Grundy, who helped himself to 31 touches as well as a massive 48 hit outs.

If the Pies’ continue to prosper off Grundy's work then the Giants might be in for a long shift come Saturday's Preliminary Final.

GWS GIANTS

18.4% TO WIN THE AFL PREMIERSHIP 

Lost amidst much of the narrative surrounding the Giants ‘unsavoury’ approach to their football, is the fact this team has emerged as a genuinely formidable AFL unit.

This Saturday’s showdown against Collingwood will be the third Preliminary Final the Giants have contested in four seasons, with a Semi Final appearance wedged in between.

While we understandably gravitate to some of the bigger names when analysing the Giants, specifically reigning Coleman Medalist Jeremy Cameron, Toby Greene, sneaky 2019 Brownlow Medal prospect, Lachie Whitfield, as well as captain and defensive lynchpin, Phil Davis, so many of the lesser names have stepped up in recent weeks to drive the Giants incredible finish in 2019.

It’s arguably now Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto’s midfield, with the two in sublime form, which has allowed Whitfield and Josh Kelly to operate more as do-it-all utilities to create nightmare match-ups for the opposition.

Over Taranto’s last nine matches he’s averaged 28 touches while accumulating five or more tackles in all but one.

Hopper, too, has been exceptional recently, averaging 28 touches over his last nine games, with his 14 contested possessions and 6 clearances per game leading the team.

The Giants are the only team in the competition ranked in the top two for both uncontested and contested possession differential and will feel it has the depth in midfield to go toe to toe with the Pies this Saturday.

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GEELONG

23.2% TO WIN THE AFL PREMIERSHIP 

All eyes were on the Cats last Friday night, as they stared down the barrel of becoming the first top-two team since 1997 to be knocked out of the AFL Finals in straight sets.

Instead of wilting under the bright lights, the Cats triumphed to secure their sixth Preliminary Final berth this decade.

Geelong will, however, be without the services of its star forward Tom Hawkins who has now been ruled out through suspension.

It’s a huge blow for the Cats as Hawkins has been at the fulcrum of everything they do from an offensive perspective, and whose All-Australian season propelled the Cats to the minor premiership.

Hawkins has led the club’s goalkicking for the last eight seasons, and even though he’s just turned 31-years old, he's in career-best form and is as important as ever to Geelong’s forward structure.

Over the last couple of seasons when Hawkins’ has been able to contribute at least two goals, the Cats have a 23-11 record.

When he’s been goalless or held to just a single goal, the Cats’ record has plummeted to 5-6.

Chris Scott has received a lot of criticism for his coaching, particularly in regards to his lopsided record when it comes to Finals time with a perceived inability to manufacture contingency game plans. 

With Hawkins’ out, Scott will indeed have no choice but to fashion a functioning forward line capable of scoring enough to threaten the all-conquering Tigers.

If he can - and in the process help Geelong back to its first Grand Final since 2011 - he’ll very much elevate his standing within the sport insofar as how we evaluate the league's best coaches. 

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