AFL Finals Power Rankings
Last updated: Sep 5, 2018, 7:42AM | Published: Aug 28, 2018, 7:35AM.jpg?w=750)
It's that time of the year! The AFL home-and-away season is over and an intriguing Finals series awaits with eight worthy sides still remaining in the race for the 2018 AFL Premiership.
So what better to do than unleash our Power Rankings for each of the 8 contenders?
Please note: this is a ranking of where teams currently stand, rather than a projection of who is going to win the Premiership. We do not use this Elo for match betting, only as part of our futures simulations. The match day betting takes into account a lot more information such as selected teams, weather and an algorithmic machine learning process based on multiple other forms of data. For those projections, see below:
#1 - Melbourne, 25.83
Why: Melbourne might just have the best list in the AFL, with a variety of depth, youth and talent from front-to-back. They are a talented team coming together at the right time, off the back of two excellent wins over West Coast in Perth, and Greater Western Sydney. Their midfield runs as deep as anyone in the AFL, and will be the key to any hopes of Premiership success, with Jack Viney still set to return. They'll have to do it Western Bulldogs style though, as finishing 5th has left them without the double chance.
Why not: Jesse Hogan and Jake Lever are pivotal in attack and defence respectively, with both ruled out for the rest of the season. To win it all, the Demons will have to win four straight from here and that is no mean feat. The Bulldogs are a wonderful, recent story, but is the exception, not the rule.
#2 - Richmond, 25.11
Why: the reigning Premiers will be very confident about their Finals chances and they should be, as they are likely to play all their remaining fixtures at the MCG - the ground on which they've won their last 21 matches. They are undoubtedly the healthiest team in the competition, with very few injuries heading into September. Ultimately when the Tigers click into that extra gear, there aren't many that can compete with them. They've cruised through the second half of the season which may have affected their ranking, but make no mistake - they are still the team to beat.
Why not: there is very little reason to pick against the Tigers. They've got all the tools they need to go back-to-back, but they've shown a brief vulnerability when teams attack them through the corridor. Geelong, Essendon and the Bulldogs have exposed this in recent weeks. It's a faint glimmer of hope, but those are the sorts of cracks you need to break open if you're going to be a giant killer and upset the reigning Premier.
#3 - Geelong, 20.32
Why: the Cats are getting into form at the right time, with crushing wins - or training runs - over Fremantle (133 points), and Gold Coast (102 points) putting them in good stead for the Finals. Tom Hawkins is in career-best form, with Patrick Dangerfield and Gary Ablett superb in midfield. Their defence in Tom Stewart, Mark Blicavs, etc, matches up against any forward line in the competition, and their change to a more direct and attacking style is getting the best out of their veteran and young players. They're a dangerous team this September.
Why not: their crushing wins may actually have a negative effect in Finals when they come up against higher quality opposition. Those huge wins have also made fans forget they lost to Hawthorn (11 points) and Richmond (3 points), and their Jekyll and Hyde season means we don't know which Geelong will show up on any given day:
- Melbourne - won by 3 points
- Hawthorn - lost by 1 point
- West Coast - lost by 15 points
- Sydney - lost by 17 points
- GWS - won by 61 points
- Collingwood - won by 21 points
- Essendon - lost by 34 points
- Richmond - lost by 18 points
- Sydney - won by 12 points
- Melbourne - won by 2 points
- Richmond - lost by 3 points
- Hawthorn - lost by 11 points
The Cats are a dangerous team no doubt, but they have a lot to prove against top quality opposition.
#4 - Collingwood, 13.73
Why: Collingwood have had a brilliant 2018, and despite piling up the injuries they have been one of the best teams this year. Jordan De Goey has emerged as a superstar playing as an undersized full-forward and is key to this Collingwood outfit. Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom provide valuable veteran experience in midfield to combine with the Magpies young talent. The Pies' 51 point thrashing of Port Adelaide was a statement win coming into Finals time.
Why not: injuries have crippled this team all year, and might be too much to overcome when it matters most. Ben Reid, Darcy Moore, Jamie Elliott, Matt Scharenberg, Tim Broomhead, Lynden Dunn and Daniel Wells are all out indefinitely, while star midfielder, Adam Treloar, is still sidelined with his sore hamstrings. They've suffered 43 and 28 point losses to the Tigers, which indicates there's still a gap to close between the two sides.
#5 - GWS, 13.06
Why: When healthy, Greater Western Sydney's top-end quality matches up against any other team in the competition. Prior to their two consecutive losses, the Giants had won 9 of their last 10 including a win over Richmond. Toby Greene, Brett Deledio, Matt De Boer and Aidan Corr should all return for their matchup with Sydney, bolstering their lineup for the derby Finals encounter. Injuries have crippled their season at times, but the potential is there if they can get healthy enough to sustain a late run.
Why not: you simply can't trust the Giants to stay fit. Despite their late-season charge to September, they broke down yet again with injuries two weeks out from Finals . Melbourne tore them apart at the MCG last Sunday, and whilst returning stars will help, can they close that much of a gap? There are still so many question marks about this Giants team, you just can't fully trust them to get it right in time to make serious Finals noise.
#6 - West Coast, 12.30
Why: West Coast have shocked the AFL this year, proving wrong preseason doubters with a superb top-two finish. They possess talent from front-to-back, with Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling a two-headed monster in the forward line, while Jeremy McGovern and Shannon Hurn are the same in defense. Elliott Yeo and Andrew Gaff have been outstanding all year in midfield, and home advantage should prove pivotal to their Grand Final charge as long as they don't stumble against Collingwood in the first Final.
Why not: although home ground advantage can help them make the Grand Final, West Coast's Grand Final chances take a significant dive on the MCG, compared to their Victorian rivals ahead of them on the list. Gaff is suspended for the entire Finals, Nic Naitanui is again out for the year injured, whilst the health of Josh Kennedy cannot be relied upon. Despite their superb home-and-away form, Finals are a different beast, and it might be too much to overcome for this Eagles outfit.
#7 - Hawthorn, 10.06
Why: Alistair Clarkson just keeps on finding a way. Since their disastrous loss to Brisbane in mid-July, Clarkson's Hawks are undefeated with six straight wins. They now have a valuable double chance, and their final round win over Sydney in Sydney could prove pivotal. Tom Mitchell is odds on favourite to be this year's Brownlow Medallist, whilst Luke Breust and Jack Gunston have been superb up front this season for the Hawks.
Why not: we don't yet know how good this Hawks outfit really is. The Hawks barely scraped past the Saints (4 point win) at Etihad, and the Swans (9 point win), without Buddy Franklin and Luke Parker. They haven't played the likes of the Tigers and Hawks in the back-end of the season, to truly measure themselves against, and they lost to Brisbane twice, and West Coast at Etihad Stadium. There are still question marks to be answered come Finals time.
#8 - Sydney, 5.48
Why: when you have Buddy Franklin, anything is possible. The AFL's most dangerous player can single-handedly drag the Swans to victory against any team in the league. The Swans have shown a recent resilience, with impressive wins over GWS, Melbourne and Collingwood to save their season.
Lance Franklin in 2018
— Swamp (@sirswampthing) August 29, 2018
Averaged 4.1 goals a game vs sides playing finals in 2018
Averaged 2.4 goals a game vs the sides that aren't
@sydneyswans @AFL
Why not: Sydney just aren't the same Swans side of recent years. More reliant on a 31-year-old Franklin than ever, the Swans ageing stars like Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and Kieran Jack are worn down. This Swans unit can't be relied on the same way they used to, and their best football is now behind them. What's left, isn't quite good enough for long enough.
