AFL Finals Probabilities Tighten Heading Into Final Stretch

With 10 weeks to go in the 2023 AFL home-and-away season, 11 teams are rated as having at least a 20% chance of playing in the finals, with the spots between fifth and eighth looking particularly contested.

According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, and Melbourne are all rated as having a 95% or higher chance of making this year's AFL finals, with each of these teams likely having a coveted double chance. 

After an important win against the aforementioned Melbourne in Round 15, Geelong is now rated as the fifth most likely team to play in the finals, despite currently sitting outside the top eight in ninth place.

Following the reigning premiers, we have the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, and Essendon as more likely than not to finish in the top eight, with St Kilda rated just outside at a 49.3% probability.

Despite these nine teams looking to be the most likely to play in the finals, the value play on the Betfair Exchange appears to be further down the board, with an edge of 5% detected on Sydney to finish in the top eight.

After a resounding 171-point win over West Coast in Round 15, the Swans are now projected as having a 21.9% chance of making the finals, with the back odds of $5.90 on the Exchange equating to an implied probability of 16.9%.

Sydney will look to continue its push for the finals with a massive game against Geelong this Friday, where our model has found early value on last year's runners-up to get the win.

2023 AFL Top Eight Probabilities

All probabilities and odds listed in this article are correct at the time of publication.