With just five rounds of football left we’re still very much in the dark as to how season 2019 will play out.

After another set of matches which saw three teams in the final eight lose, including the league’s top two, Round 18 confirmed once again how incredibly wide open the season is, with each match seemingly working as a new opportunity to pulverize all we thought we knew.

Going into the round, one of the only valid assumptions in the competition, outside of the Gold Coast’s continued malaise, was that Geelong were perhaps a notch or two above the rest, however even the Cats are starting to look vulnerable having lost three of their last five, with all three losses coming against teams presently outside the top eight.

With a handful of games remaining the final eight is anything but a finished product, with positioning within, including the top four’s composition, as volatile as it’s been all season.

The Stats Insider futures model is presently projecting 12 teams as having at least an 8% chance of playing finals in 2019 with our model also suggesting there’s seven teams with at least a 14% chance of claiming a top four berth.

With so much still in the air how are the league’s finals aspirants shaping up with just five games to go, and just what chances do each have of making a mark in September?

GEELONG CATS

While it was initially brushed aside as post-bye fatigue, it’s now safe to declare the Cats are in something of a genuine swoon. Not only have they dropped three games since the bye, but so many of the qualities that made them the league’s runaway leader have disappeared. The Cats are averaging just 70 points over the last five weeks while slipping to 14^th in the competition in clearance differential at -1.4 per match. Thankfully for Geelong, their run home is rather gentle with only one assignment remaining against a top four team which should ensure their first Minor Premiership since 2008.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: The Cats are a 21.1% chance of winning their fourth premiership in 13 seasons.

BRISBANE LIONS

Believe it or not, but with five games to go, the Lions are second on the ladder with a 19.6% chance of premiership glory. Yes, the same Lions who collected a wooden spoon as recently as 2017.

The Lions have spent all but one round positioned outside of the final eight this year, with this young team actually playing their best football at a time of the year so many expected them to run out of steam. Brisbane’s 12 point win over North Melbourne on Saturday night was a lot more convincing than the final result, with the Lions producing 12 more scoring shots along with a massive +24 inside 50 edge. Brisbane’s 5-3 record against top eight teams this season should give them the confidence that when Finals do roll around, they’ll have what it takes to mix it with the best.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: That the Lions are a 38.4% chance of appearing in their first Grand Final in 15 years.

RELATED: Inside the Lions 2019 Turnaround

WEST COAST EAGLES

West Coast’s pedestrian 3-3 start to season worked brilliantly in terms of taking the spotlight away from the reigning champs which allowed the Eagles to tinker with their line-up and game-plan without the kind of scrutiny usually reserved for the premier. The champions, who are seeking their fifth club premiership, have snuck up on the rest of the competition winning nine of their last 11 matches. They’re now in the box seat to secure the all-important double chance in September and a potential carpet ride through to yet another grand final.

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STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: The Eagle are a 78.1% chance of securing a top four berth which would mean the Eagles get the opportunity to play at least one Finals game in Perth.

COLLINGWOOD

When the Magpies won their traditional Queen’s Birthday clash against the Demons in Round 12, it made for their eighth win in nine matches and earned them outright second place on the ladder. At that point in time, the Pies absolutely looked like the next best team outside of Geelong, with it’s rampant midfield and ridiculously deep spread of goal kickers paving the way.

Since then the Pies' fall from grace has been as alarming as any of this year’s apparent contenders, losing three of their last five with their two wins coming by margins of just one point and nine points. Collingwood haven’t kicked 100 points or more since Round Nine against St Kilda.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: The Pies have spent the past 14 rounds in the top four yet are now less than a flip of the coin chance to maintain that position with our model giving them a 47.4% chance of securing the double chance.

RICHMOND TIGERS

This Tigers season could have been forgiven if it collapsed under the weight of its significant injury list. As if losing five-time All-Australian Alex Rance in the opening game wasn’t enough, Richmond have also had to deal with injuries to Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt who has managed just five games all year.

Instead of crumbling, the Tigers have rallied and now sit outside the final four on percentage, having rediscovered the kind of form which won them the 2017 premiership as well as their barnstorming 2018 home and away campaign. The Tigers are averaging a competition high 112 points over the last four weeks with free agent recruit Tom Lynch finally living up to the considerable money Richmond invested in him.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: At the end of Round 14 the Tigers were 7-6 and outside the eight looking in. They’re now being given a 97.6% chance of making what will be their sixth Finals campaign in seven seasons.

GWS GIANTS

Of all the contending teams in 2019, the Giants are perhaps the most confounding. The three weeks prior to this past weekend’s annihilation of Collingwood, the Giants had lost three straight and had lost their two best midfielders (Josh Kelly and Steven Coniglio) to injury.

With their backs against the wall and their top four prospects on the line, coach Leon Cameron pulled a rabbit out of his hat by sending in the round’s most gigantic team who helped the Giants put together one of the most efficient performances of the season, producing 27 scoring shots from just 49 inside 50s.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: The Giants are a 91.7% chance of playing Finals for a fourth straight year.

ESSENDON

When the Bombers started the season with two straight demoralising losses the wolves came hunting for Essendon both insofar as their barren, 15 year stretch without winning a final along with the wisdom of re-appointing coach John Worsfold. A few months later and Essendon have won ten of their last 15 and are now an 86.5% chance of playing finals football in 2019.

Essendon’s stunning in-season form reversal has made for one of the most unexpected twists of the season with an incredibly resilient Essendon team emerging in spite of having three of their most important players (Devon Smith, Dyson Heppel and Joe Daniher) missing significant time through injury.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: Essendon is a 14.1% chance of making the top four this season, an area of the ladder they haven’t finished within since 2001.

ADELAIDE CROWS

The Crows are looking old, uninspired and completely out of ideas. With their finals credibility in the spotlight on Friday Night footy, Adelaide blew a 30-point lead at home against the Bombers leaving the Crows on the precipice of missing finals for a second consecutive season. To make matters worse, Carlton, whose first round pick the Crows famously own, won again and jumped the Demons on the ladder.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: Adelaide is a 61.3% chance of playing finals this season.

PORT ADELAIDE 

There's likely some major questions being asked at Alberton after another season has seemingly slipped from its grasp. For as good as the surface level of Port Adelaide’s list appears there’s also a very weak underbelly along with a very clear lack of ideas from its coaching staff.

The Power have moved the furniture around considerably in recent times form a list management perspective which has worked to distract broader analysis of just where the club is. The cold reality is that Port are now staring down the barrel of missing finals for the fifth time in six seasons while once again wilting at the most important time of the year.

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STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: Port’s season is indeed slipping away and are now just a 20% chance of playing finals in 2019.

HAWTHORN HAWKS

One day we’ll remember to never write off either the Hawks or their genius coach Alastair Clarkson. With wins over Geelong and Collingwood in recent weeks Hawthorn are now just a game outside the eight. The Hawks have morphed themselves into one of the best defensive teams in the competition ranked third in the league in tackle differential at +4.9, while conceding an average of just 67.2 points per game over the last five matches.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: The Hawks are a 19.1% chance of playing finals this season. If they do, it would be their 11^th September appearance in 13 seasons.

FREMANTLE DOCKERS

The Dockers one point win over Sydney has kept their slim Finals hopes alive, though few would think they’re any kind of threat this season. Outside of the desperately struggling Suns, no one has scored less than Fremantle this season with Ross Lyon’s infamous lack of offensive prowess once again revealing itself. Over the last five rounds Fremantle is averaging 56.4 points per game, the league’s lowest mark in that period.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS:The Dockers are a 91.9% chance of missing finals for a fourth straight season.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Like the Dockers, the Bulldogs are nominally in finals calculations this season however their hopes are now hanging by a thread after the weekend’s massive loss to St Kilda.

It’s been an incredibly frustrating season for the Dogs who on the one paw can claim to have beaten both of this year’s top two, yet on the other have loss four games against this season’s bottom six. The dogs have an extremely tough run home with each of their five games pitted against teams presently above them on the ladder.

STATS INSIDER FUTURE MODEL SAYS: The Dogs are an 86.4% chance of missing finals for a third consecutive season.

The only predictable thing about the 2019 season has been it's unpredictability. With five rounds to go, there's sure to be significantly more change as we approach finals. Be sure to check in to Stats Insiders for all our match pages in addition to our futures projections. 

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