AFL Futures – Favourites for the Flag

If you are feeling confident and happy about yourself right now, it’s probably because you stayed clear of AFL tipping this season. After watching almost every match this season, only 5 out of my 9 picks won over the Easter Weekend and a friend who has barely watched two matches gets 8 out of 9 correct. Life is just NOT fair. Sigh!

Before the season, if someone told you that after five rounds the Top-3 would have St Kilda and Fremantle, while Melbourne would be in the bottom two, there is a good chance you’d have laughed it off. But after looking at the AFL Ladder today, you may want to find that person and ask them to pick your lottery numbers.

The real question now is how do things look moving forward? Will the underdogs continue with their momentum or will the pre-season flag favourites step up and run away with it? Let’s ask our trusty Stats Insider model and see how the AFL Futures ladder looks at the moment.

After Round 5, the Stats Insider model still has Geelong as the favourites to win the flag with a 21.4% chance and they are good value at $5 on TAB. Collingwood swapped places with West Coast Eagles and are second favourites to win the flag. At 17.8%, the Magpies’ chances have increased by almost 2% and TAB has them at $4.5 for a Grand Final win.

After losing at home this round, West Coast’s chances have reduced from 18.6% to 16.4% and they are being offered at $6. Greater Western Sydney dropped from 15.1% to 11.8% but with some favourable fixtures coming up for the Giants, they seem good value at $9.

With their third consecutive win, Essendon have a 6.1% chance to win the flag, an increase from 3.9% before Round 5. Port Adelaide have jumped four spots into 7th, with the model having them at 3.9% chance.

The biggest jump, or rather slump, after Round 5 was by Melbourne who went from 6th favourites for the flag at 4.4% to 14th with a 1.6% chance. In terms of odds, the SI model would have the Demons at $62.5 but TAB have them at $41.

With two consecutive wins, Richmond (8.6%) and St Kilda (1.7%) have improved their chances on the SI model’s Futures ladder. Fremantle went from 0.8% to 1.6% after their win, while Brisbane Lions’ chances (2.1%) took a blow after their loss to Collingwood.

Carlton’s first win of 2019 sees their chances of winning the flag increase from 0.1% to 0.3% while Bulldogs’ chances have slumped further down from 1% to just 0.6%. The chances of Swans (0.8%) and the Crows (2.1%) remained changed as Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Gold Coast drop to 2.3%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

We're only five rounds into the season, it's been crazy so far and I've a feeling it's only going to get a lot crazier. Wish me luck for this week’s tipping, we’ve already established that I need it.