AFL Grand Final 2022 - Key Matchups for Geelong vs Sydney

AFL Grand Finals are the ultimate game of chess, and Geelong vs Sydney appears to be another classic in the making.

With the highest of stakes on the line, it tends to boil down to which coach’s tactics hold up the best and who isn’t afraid to be bold when the time calls for it.

2022 has graced us with some excellent footy and the season’s finale promises to be one of the games of the year, between two contrasting styles that will provide us with a memorable contest.

Sydney and Geelong have been the two most efficient attacking teams in the league, averaging 13.77 and 13.83 disposals per scoring shot respectively, while they are also the two best teams at restricting the opposition’s ball flow, occupying the top spots for fewest metres gained by an opposing team.

It makes for a scintillating fixture between the tackling pressure of the red and white, with the control and hit-up play of the Cats.

Chris Scott and John Longmire will no doubt spend hours preparing all facets of the game plan, with these three match-ups amongst those that will define the 2022 AFL Grand Final.

Ryan Clarke vs Tom Stewart

Ryan Clarke has been a regular in the team since Sydney's Round 17 win over the Bulldogs, and has carved out a spot for himself in the forward line, ultimately taking over from the role Sam Wicks has played over the last 18 months.

While he hasn’t played as a defensive forward exclusively during this time, it’s perhaps the best way to capitalise on his strengths in a Grand Final where nullifying the Cats across half-back is vital to success.

Tom Stewart’s season has been typically spectacular. Averaging 23.6 disposals at 84.7% kicking efficiency, as well as 2.9 intercept marks and 3.8 spoils, he has rated elite in almost every statistic you’d think he would as the league’s premier half-back.

His increased value in 2022 though, has been the offence he has provided. Averaging a career-high 4.1 score involvements, 2.4 score launches and 2.2 inside 50s per inside 50, as well as 500 metres gained, the 29-year-old has been a key factor in the incisiveness and directness of Geelong’s ball movement, leading to easier scoring opportunities than they’ve had over the last decade.

We can expect Isaac Heeney to make Stewart accountable as a defender, but Sydney’s job will be to stop Stewart having the slingshot effect he does when Geelong looks to transition.

Clarke’s pressure has certainly been the main reason for his continued selection and it’ll be vital in restricting Geelong’s star rebounder.

Before the preliminary final, Clarke had eight consecutive games with at least one tackle inside 50 – in the qualifying final alone, he had three.

Yet, he isn’t a player who is stuck in the arc. Clarke works hard defensively and will follow his opponent as far back as the defensive side of the centre square to lay a tackle. His six tackles and 20 pressure acts were huge in Sydney's prelim win against Collingwood.

Even mid-season, there’d have been many who were shocked that Clarke was still on an AFL list. Now, he looms as an important piece in Sydney’s quest for a flag.

MORE: AFL Grand Final Tips and Predictions

Tom Hawkins vs Tom McCartin

While Jeremy Cameron or the aforementioned Stewart may be Geelong’s best player, it’s how Tom Hawkins plays that is the true barometer of the team’s success.

The key forward’s form at 34 years of age is quite ridiculous – 64 goals in 24 games with a career-high 27 goal assists and only one goalless game, Hawkins is truly re-wiring the thoughts of many as to how deep into a career key forwards can go.

Yet the Grand Final will see him facing a challenge that has been difficult to overcome in recent seasons.

In his last three games against Sydney, Hawkins has averaged 7.7 disposals, 3.7 marks and has kicked just four goals, with a solitary goal assist. The Cats lost two of those games, with the veteran’s inability to contribute well a key factor.

It has certainly been a positive development for Tom McCartin, who has established himself as the Swans’ main defender in a very unassuming way.

After a bit of a rough patch mid-season, the 22-year-old has been spectacular against big key forwards. 

Since losing to Essendon, the Swans haven’t lost and McCartin has defended 26 one-on-ones, losing just twice. This includes a mammoth 27 spoils and 10 contests against Melbourne and Collingwood in this finals series alone.

The introduction of his brother as an interceptor has certainly given Sydney’s defence more assistance, but the younger of the duo has truly broken out in the second half of the year and is more than ready to take on Hawkins.

It makes for a tantalising contest between the two players at either ends of their careers, who will more often than not be the ones closest to goal throughout the day.

Cameron Guthrie vs Callum Mills

This isn’t so much a direct matchup as the equivalent players for both teams.

While we’re discussing the two most efficient offensive teams in the AFL, one would suspect that this Grand Final will come down to defensive commitment on both ends.

In Cameron Guthrie and Callum Mills, both teams have a hard-working midfielder that will position themselves defensively as much as is necessary to suffocate the opposing team’s clearance effectiveness, or to add another number behind the ball, and do it well.

Mills himself is the league’s most well-rounded midfielder and having played in defence to start his career, has elite reading of the play – his spoil in the final minute of the preliminary final was incredible.

What is often forgotten though, is Guthrie’s time across half-back, where he spent time learning the craft of lockdown defence and performing admirably in the role.

If it’s true that this game may be more low-scoring than many assume, then just how effective these two are with their two-way work from the centre will be the difference in the game.

Mills is perhaps the more accomplished of the two in terms of final product, but the veteran Cat has produced similar numbers and is a far less heralded, yet equally as capable all-round midfielder who shapes the way Geelong’s midfield operates.

If the Cats can get Guthrie playing the same game as Mills on Saturday, the premiership may well be theirs.