Defending the Patron Saints of the Burnt Toast

When the St Kilda Football Club announced on the eve of the 2019 AFL season, that the body of their (hideously expensive) prized recruit, Dan Hannebery, effectively needed to be rebuilt following an alarming number of soft-tissue injuries, it sent an almighty jolt through the hearts and minds of the Saints faithful.

St Kilda’s pre-season outlook had already taken on the complexion of a slice of seriously burnt toast before the Hannebery bombshell, and so now the smoke alarm was well and truly blaring out at Moorabbin.

Already reeling from the news that four-time Trevor Barker Award winner, Jack Steven, would require time away from the club to deal with personal issues, and that star key defender, Jake Carlisle,would also be facing a lengthy stint on the sidelines, there seemed little doubt the Saints streak of seven seasons without an AFL Finals berth would click over to eight.

And so when embattled coach Alan Richardson announced the Hannebery health alert, the Saints season prognosis shifted to being more about just how few games they’d win, alongside just how long Richardson had left in the job.

Yet sometime between then and now, the Moorabbin smoke alarm stopped, and the toast seems to have been salvaged.

The Saints find themselves fifth on the AFL ladder, with three wins from their first four matches.

The doom, gloom, panic and ridicule being heaped on St Kilda during the off-season seems to have been replaced with a sudden and confusing shift to see just how they have proved so many wrong.

ROUNDS PLAYED EACH YEAR FOR STK TO RECORD 3 WINS UNDER ALAN RICHARDSON

2014: 5
2015: 9
2016: 9
2017: 6
2018: 15
2019: 4

They’ve been without a doubt - along with the Gold Coast Suns - one of the most refreshing surprise stories of this young season, and have made a plethora of pundits and punters (or both, in my case) look rather foolish.  

The Saints have been significantly more resilient in 2019, employing a brand of football which is - defensively, at least - both frenetic and determined. A brand made possible, it must be said, owing to the fruits of a recruiting team who searched under every small rock and big pineapple the country over, to deliver to the coaching staff, a list that I imagine earns them first pumps in the corridors of their bayside hub.

Now, of course, the Saints excellent start does come with a somewhat large note of caution.

Their three wins have come by a combined 17 points, while all three victims are considered by the bookmakers as teams more likely to miss, than make the AFL Finals this season.

SEE STATS INSIDER'S 2019 AFL PREMIERSHIP FUTURES PROJECTIONS

They’re neither winning by much, and, evidently not beating much either, which aren’t usually the kind of metrics which foreshadow a long, enduring Finals run.

It is also worth noting that as of time of publishing, the win/loss records of St Kilda's opponents still sit fairly favourably on the AFL ladder, with Hawthorn (won by 5), Essendon (won by 11) and Fremantle (lost by 5) all sitting at an even pegging of 2-2, while Gold Coast (won by 1) is another surprise packet, sitting just behind the Saints at 6th on the ladder at 3-1.

The Saints next five matches will show the true extent of their resurgence, with Melbourne (away), Adelaide (home), GWS (away), West Coast (home) and Collingwood (away) all tipped as Premiership - or at least top 4 - aspirants in 2019.

Yet, the Saints are here as of right now, and like the pair of socks you forget were drying on the line (for five years), they are most definitely worthy of both our attention and analysis.

Moreover, their competitiveness and ladder position is the exact kind of variance this competition needs.

They rank 6th in the AFL for opposition disposal efficiency at 71.5%. They lead the league in tackles with 69.8 tackles per game, with Jack Steele, Luke Dunstan and Jack Sinclair all in the league’s top 20 for that individual statistic.

The Saints unrelenting pressure on the ball carrier is resulting in a diminished quality of opposition forward entries, with Saints opponents taking a league-low 36 marks once inside 50. The unheralded, makeshift key defensive pillars of veteran Nathan Brown, swingman Josh Battle and mature-aged recruit, Callum Wilkie, have been absolute revelations in defense for the Saints in 2019.

Thankfully for St Kilda, their defensive acts aren’t just producing a nice list of statistics, but are having a tangible effect on scoring.

Only four teams have conceded less points than St Kilda this season, whose defensive unit also seems to kick into an extra gear the deeper into the game they go.

The 51 total points the Saints have conceded in last quarters represent the best mark in the league. On Sunday against Hawthorn, Alistair Clarkson’s team was able to register just a solitary behind in the final term, as the Saints simply ran all over them.

STK POINTS PER GAME CONCEDED UNDER ALAN RICHARDSON (LEAGUE RANK)

2014: 110.7 (18th)
2015: 98.2 (15th)
2016: 92.7 (13th)
2017: 90.3 (11th)
2018: 96.6 (16th)
2019: 57.8 (5th)

Along with their extraordinary defensive improvements, the Saints are succeeding off the back of what has been a genuine team ethos across the board.

Sunday’s victory over the Hawks marked the first time St Kilda has won a game without the star services of either Jack Steven, or club legend, Nick Riewoldt, since 2010.

The team that lined up on Saturday represented nearly every state and territory in the country, while just two Saints in that lineup - Jack Billings and Hunter Clarke - were top ten draft picks, proving that the Saint’s recent resurrection has come more off the back of club-wide diligence and intelligent scouting, than any premium draft pick frenzy.

Yes, it is early days, and the Saints road ahead will only get tougher, yet sometimes it’s worth celebrating the slice of toast which seemed destined for the trash, but in reality, only needed a swift scrape of the knife.

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