AFL Identity Check: Hot Dogs, Hot Pies, Dons' Swan Dive
Last updated: Apr 1, 2019, 5:16AM | Published: Apr 1, 2019, 5:02AM
Round two is in the books and in the waiting room this week we have….
SYDNEY SWANS
The Swans have been one of the finest sporting clubs Australia has seen over the last 20 or so years. Finalists in 20 of the last 23 seasons, 6 AFL Grand Final appearances in that period and a couple of Premierships. They’ve made the post-season each year this decade, which isn’t something another single AFL or NRL club can claim to have achieved.
Yet, just two games into the season all signs are pointing to that streak ending in 2019.
The Swans have looked quite poor over the first two rounds. They look slow and uninspired. Their patented Bloods ferocity around the contest has slipped sharply. They have scored just 65 and 62 points in both matches.
Most alarming for Sydney is that they either failed to read the template on how best to beat the Crows, or perhaps the players chose to completely ignore the instructions.
That template, set in 2018 and continued by Hawthorn in their week one smashing of Adelaide, was based around constriction and not allowing the Crows drive and penetration. On Friday night, and in a stadium that ought to have played right into the Swans’ ability to indeed go all python, the Crows walked all over them. Adelaide was able to generate a scoring shot for every 13.5 possessions compared with the 22 the week prior against the Hawks. That efficiency was aided by the Crows kick-to-handball ratio jumping from 1.09 in round one, up to 1.49 this week.
The Swans will play the club which has been the polar opposite of themselves over the last 20 years, next week, when they face Carlton at the Docklands. A perfect assignment to assess just how many feathers these Swans have shed.
For Swans fans looking for consolation in their poor start, Sydney have qualified for the AFL Finals on each of the last 6 occasions they’ve lost their first 2 games dating back to 1996.
COLLINGWOOD
Despite Richmond being without Alex Rance (you may have heard he sustained an awful injury the week prior), the Pies put in what was not only the best performance by any team so far in 2019, but evidence that we should perhaps regard this team as favourites to go one better this year.
It was a masterclass of design and execution by the Collingwood, which closely mirrored their annihilation of the Tigers in last year’s Preliminary Final.
Any analysis of what Collingwood did to Richmond on Thursday night simply can’t start without referencing the astonishing 174 marks they took, which was indeed just eight shy of the all-time AFL record. Essentially, Collingwood owned the football with their ability to dominate possession, resulting in an extra 18 inside 50’s, more than 600 meters gained and 154 uncontested possessions.
Really, winning by just 44 points would appear to be a bit of a rip off for the Pies in terms of those numbers.
And here’s my favourite stat from the win. From the team that beat the Tigers last September, and using AFL Fantasy scores as a measurement, only Grundy, Crisp, Mayne and Phillips doubled up to reappear in Collingwood’s ten best players in this most recent destruction. This Collingwood list is deep, varied and extremely potent, to say nothing of its excellent coaching.
They’ll be seriously hard to beat in 2019.
MELBOURNE
It’s fortunate for the Demons that Essendon performed so poorly a few hours earlier, as I suspect that result has helped take the spotlight away from the Melbourne performance.
Out of a handful of teams considered genuine AFL Premiership contenders in the pre-season, none have underperformed and under delivered quite like the Demons, losing both early encounters, and being outscored by more than 100 points in the process.
Melbourne seem to be a very peculiar shaped team in that the crux of their premier players are clustered in one area of the park - their midfield.
And it’s the midfield where a strange story seems to be unfolding in terms of what the numbers are illustrating. In their opening game against Port they won both the centre and broader stoppage clearances, and did so again on Saturday night against the Cats, even winning the inside 50 count by a mind-boggling +25 - a number which would ordinarily result in a convincing win, not an 80 point thrashing.
So what’s going on from a statistical standpoint with the Demons?
Well, I think it’s partly a structural issue. There was a discrepancy of 1100 metres gained between the Demons and Cats, which for as remarkable as Melbourne's inside 50 differential was, that metres gained number is a deplorable reflection upon what the Demons were doing when they didn't have the ball.
In their opening round loss to Port Adelaide - and although the meters conceded wasn’t as pronounced (100) - they were profoundly beaten in the uncontested disposal count (93) which was a statistic they were again trounced in on Saturday night.
Obviously, Melbourne’s horrendous start can’t be pigeonholed to just a couple of areas but consecutive beat-downs in areas which bring into question the team's ability to apply pressure without the ball, are definitely contributing factors to this awful start.
BRISBANE LIONS
The Lions continue to be the feel-good story of the 2019 season so far, perhaps not so much if you’re a Kangaroos supporter, but the good vibes are palpable and undeniable.
Two wins on the trot against two teams with winning records in 2018, along with two scores that smashed through the 100 point ceiling are at the core of the optimism.
Now, of course, when you win your first two games, posting such healthy scores, there’s a laundry list of positive statistics which your supporters can drool over in the afterglow of victory. The first thing that stands out for me is the spread of the contribution from an age, physical and 'perceived class' point of view.
Nine different players kicked goals in the opening round win, eleven in their round two victory over the Roos, while it seems that once again the Lions are posting their large totals without any significant contribution from their tall forwards. Their apparent emerging superstar Eric Hipwood has contributed just 1 of his team’s 31 goals over two weeks while having a minimal statistical imprint on either game.
Like Brisbane’s first up effort against the Eagles, they conceded the opening quarter only to dominate the last 3. Whether this speaks to the excellent adjustments made by Chris Fagan and his coaching staff, or perhaps a higher level of fitness than their opponents, what is undeniable is that success is being generated from their emerging midfield. Through two games they top the league in centre clearances which is leading to the Lions generating the second best inside 50 differential in the league.
Around the ground, their disposal efficiency is bettered only by the Magpies - which again speaks to the incredible +707 metres gained differential on their opponents.
Now, that +707m number is worth monitoring, as the best mark in this stat achieved by a team through the course of an entire season was Hawthorn’s 579 in 2015 - a season of course, where the Hawks added more silverware to an enviable collection.
Whether it’s a combination of the Lions being in the wilderness for so long, a pang at seeing list management done so right, or my own personal predilection for the actual city of Brisbane, it’d be a pretty cold person that's not enjoying the reemergence of the Lions.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Dogs.
Well, the Dogs seem back.
Back to 2016 form, and particularly, back to the Finals form of that season which saw the Western Bulldogs (nee: Footscray) break a 62-year AFL Premiership drought and imprint a permanent tattoo on this writer’s soul.
What seems to suggest the Dogs’ are back to that 2016 vintage is the maniacal effort around the ball, with a return to the top of the charts in key metrics such as contested possession and centre clearances, resulting in the Bulldogs generating more inside 50 entries than any other team in the competition after two games.
Another comforting notion for the Dogs is that both their wins have come against teams who made the AFL Finals last season, resulting in a little bit of impending fixturing love, with two of their next three assignments scheduled against the Gold Coast and Carlton, with a match sandwiched in between against the current completion benchmark Collingwood.
ST KILDA
Whenever you see St Kilda in the waiting room, we usually expect the Saints to be featured with a sad tale, so it’s wonderful to see them so cheery today.
And while the Saints two victims in Gold Coast and Essendon won’t cause anybody to get woozy, they have prevailed in both despite one of, if not the worst injury list in the competition.
That the Saints have been able to win without the services of Hannebery, Carlisle, Roberton and McCartin, four players who'd absolutely be in the team’s starting 18, is testament to their maligned coach Alan Richardson and his confidence in the players he does have at his disposal. In addition, St Kilda appears committed to playing direct, attacking football.
If Richardson is to face the axe at some point, he seems intent on going down swinging and should be applauded for that.
In the Saints opening round win over the Gold Coast they generated a scoring shot every 18 possessions, while this week they posted a round two best scoring shot every 13th disposal.
St Kilda supporters would also be particularly excited about the return of Rowan Marshall.
The Saints have had a drunken conga line of ruckmen this decade, however Marshall is giving fans hope that he may well be the one capable of keeping his feet to last the whole night on the Saints disco dance floor. Marshall was one of only four ruckmen this round to post an AFL Fantasy score in excess of 100 points. The others were the league’s two best ruckmen in Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy, while the fourth, ironically, was someone who has spent time on that Saints conga line, in new #1 Eagle, Tom Hickey.
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