AFL Norm Smith Medal Tips - Who Will Win The Norm Smith 2022?
Last updated: Sep 21, 2022, 9:42AM | Published: Sep 21, 2022, 7:48AM
The player adjudged the best on ground in the 2022 AFL Grand Final between Geelong and Sydney will be awarded the Norm Smith Medal, for which Stats Insider has used data and machine learning to find the most likely winner.
Our Norm Smith tips are based on simulating Geelong vs Sydney 10,000 times to determine how likely each player is to lead the Norm Smith voting in 2022, with the most likely players featured below.
| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) | 9.4% |
| Jeremy Cameron (Geelong) | 8.6% |
| Callum Mills (Sydney) | 8.3% |
The full list of 2022 Norm Smith Medal probabilities is available at the bottom of this page.
This year's Norm Smith medal odds are brought to you by BlueBet.
Who Will Win the Norm Smith Medal 2022?
This year's AFL Grand Final is set to feature a host of big-name players, including Jeremy Cameron, Luke Parker and Tom Stewart, but who are the best bets to win the Norm Smith Medal? Let's find out.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)
In our 10,000 simulations of the 2022 AFL Grand Final, Patrick Dangerfield was best on ground 9.6% of the time, making him the most likely winner of the Norm Smith.
Dangerfield comes into this game following one of the best AFL finals performances of his career, having had 28 disposals and kicking two goals in Geelong's preliminary final win over Brisbane.
The 2016 Brownlow medallist has averaged 24.4 disposals over his past five games overall, which bodes well for another big midfield performance against Sydney.
If you're looking to take Dangerfield to add a Norm Smith to his impressive resume, BlueBet has odds of $7.00. Our fair odds are $10.40.
Callum Mills (Sydney)
If you're looking for a player from the underdog Swans to win the Norm Smith Medal this year, then Sydney's Callum Mills is the player for you.
Mills has an 8.3% probability of leading the Norm Smith votes this year, making him the most likely Sydney player to win the award.
The consistent midfielder has only finished two of his 24 games in 2022 with fewer than 20 disposals, adding an average of 6.5 tackles per game.
BlueBet is offering odds of $9.00 for Mills to win the award in 2022, with our fair odds at $12.10.
Joel Selwood (Geelong)
Geelong's Joel Selwood is aiming to win his fourth AFL Premiership and first as the Cats' skipper, with a big individual performance sure to go a long way towards achieving just that.
Selwood had 25 disposals, five clearances and three tackles in Geelong's qualifying final win over Collingwood, before being ranked the sixth best player on the ground against Brisbane last week according to the AFL's official player ratings.
With an average of 23.8 disposals in his five previous Grand Finals, Selwood is no stranger to performing on the big stage.
If you're looking to bet on another big September performance from Selwood, BlueBet's odds of $26 present value against our fair odds of $24.10.
Buddy Franklin (Sydney)
In addition to Selwood, the other player featuring in his sixth AFL Grand Final is, of course, Sydney's Buddy Franklin.
Lance 'Buddy' Franklin is more than comfortable playing in front of the biggest crowds the AFL has to offer and will likely be relishing the opportunity to play in his first Grand Final since Sydney's 2016 loss to the Western Bulldogs.
Franklin enters this week having kicked two or more goals in six of his last seven games, with our model projecting him as having a 4.7% chance of claiming best-on-ground honours.
This probability equates to fair odds of $21.50, with BlueBet offering similar at $21.
Norm Smith Medal 2022 Probabilities
| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) | 9.6% |
| Jeremy Cameron (Geelong) | 8.6% |
| Callum Mills (Sydney) | 8.3% |
| Cameron Guthrie (Geelong) | 6.7% |
| Luke Parker (Sydney) | 6.6% |
| Tom Stewart (Geelong) | 6.4% |
| Isaac Heeney (Sydney) | 5.4% |
| Buddy Franklin (Sydney) | 4.7% |
| Mitch Duncan (Geelong) | 4.2% |
| Joel Selwood (Geelong) | 4.1% |
| Chad Warner (Sydney) | 4.0% |
| Tom Hawkins (Geelong) | 3.9% |
| Tom Papley (Sydney) | 3.0% |
| Isaac Smith (Geelong) | 1.8% |
| Mark Blicavs (Geelong) | 1.8% |
| James Rowbottom (Sydney) | 1.7% |
| Errol Gulden (Sydney) | 1.3% |
| Nick Blakey (Sydney) | 1.2% |
| Gary Rohan (Geelong) | 1.2% |
| Zach Tuohy (Geelong) | 1.2% |
| Tyson Stengle (Geelong) | 1.2% |
Norm Smith Medallists
- Norm Smith Medal 2021: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
- Norm Smith Medal 2020: Dustin Martin (Richmond)
- Norm Smith Medal 2019: Dustin Martin (Richmond)
- Norm Smith Medal 2018: Luke Shuey (West Coast)
- Norm Smith Medal 2017: Dustin Martin (Richmond)
- Norm Smith Medal 2016: Jason Johannisen (Western Bulldogs)
- Norm Smith Medal 2015: Cyril Rioli (Hawthorn)
- Norm Smith Medal 2014: Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
- Norm Smith Medal 2013: Brian Lake (Hawthorn)
- Norm Smith Medal 2012: Ryan O'Keefe (Sydney)
